Why the 2024 US Election Could Decide the Fate of Global Climate Action

As the world inches closer to 2030, the year by which significant climate goals are meant to be achieved, the importance of the 2024 US presidential election cannot be overstated. This election will shape not only the future of American climate policy but also the global trajectory in the fight against climate change. In a recent episode of the Climate Confident podcast, I had the opportunity to discuss these high stakes with Dr. Jay Hakes, a renowned expert on US energy and environmental policy. Our conversation underscored the critical role that political leadership plays in either advancing or hindering climate progress—not just in the United States, but worldwide.

The Importance of US Leadership in Climate Action

The United States, as one of the world’s largest economies and a leading emitter of greenhouse gases, has a unique responsibility in the global climate arena. Decisions made by the US government reverberate across the globe, influencing international climate agreements, economic policies, and the pace of technological advancements in renewable energy. The 2024 election is especially crucial because the incoming president will serve through the latter half of this decade, a period that many climate scientists agree is pivotal for mitigating the worst effects of climate change.

Jay highlighted how the US political system, with its checks and balances, often slows down urgent action, especially on issues as complex as climate change. Unlike parliamentary systems where a majority can push through policies more swiftly, the US system can become bogged down in partisan gridlock, especially when the stakes are high. This makes the outcome of not just the presidential race, but also the congressional and state-level elections, critically important.

Key Insights from the Podcast

One of the key points that emerged in our discussion was the role of presidential leadership in shaping US climate policy. Dr. Hakes pointed out that significant opportunities to advance climate action have been missed in the past due to political decisions. For example, the failure to strengthen automobile efficiency standards in the early 1990s set the US back by over a decade in reducing transportation emissions, which now account for a significant portion of the country’s carbon footprint.

Dr. Hakes also noted the impact of judicial appointments, particularly to the Supreme Court, on environmental regulation. With lifetime appointments, the judges selected by the next president could either bolster or undermine climate regulations for generations. This makes the stakes of the 2024 election even higher, as it will likely determine the direction of environmental policy and regulation long after the president’s term has ended.

The Global Significance of the US Election

The 2024 US election will send a powerful signal to the rest of the world about the United States’ commitment to climate action. If the election results in a leadership that prioritizes climate science and invests in renewable energy, it could inspire other nations to follow suit. On the other hand, a reversal of recent progress could embolden climate skeptics globally and slow down the momentum needed to meet international climate targets.

One of the starkest contrasts in the climate policies of the two major candidates is their approach to international cooperation. Dr. Hakes and I discussed how a US administration that disengages from global climate efforts, as was seen during the Trump presidency with the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, can have a domino effect, weakening the resolve of other nations. In contrast, active US participation in international climate diplomacy can help forge stronger, more ambitious global commitments.

Elections Beyond the Presidency

While the presidential election understandably grabs the most headlines, it’s important to remember that state and local elections also play a crucial role in climate action. Governors, state legislators, and even city councils make decisions that directly impact energy policy, land use, and public transportation—areas that are vital for reducing emissions. States like California have shown that ambitious climate policies can be implemented at the state level, even when federal action is lacking. However, such progress requires elected officials who are committed to sustainability.

Furthermore, Congress plays a significant role in shaping US climate policy. The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2022, is a prime example of how critical congressional support is for climate legislation. If control of Congress shifts, it could either bolster or dismantle existing climate initiatives, making every seat in the House and Senate equally important in the fight against climate change.

A Call to Action

As we approach this critical election, it’s more important than ever to stay informed and engaged. The decisions made at the ballot box in 2024 will shape not just the future of the United States, but the global climate landscape. I encourage everyone to listen to the full episode of the Climate Confident podcast to gain deeper insights from my conversation with Dr. Jay Hakes. His expertise and historical perspective provide valuable context for understanding why this election is so crucial.

If you care about the future of our planet, now is the time to get involved. If you are based in the US, educate yourself on the candidates’ climate policies, vote in every election—local, state, and national—and advocate for science-based climate action. We need to ensure that the US plays a leading role in the global effort to combat climate change.