Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 121 to share his macro outlook, views on cryptocurrency and AI, and his Exponential Age thesis.
In this episode, Pal makes a case that we’re currently in the bottom of the business cycle and could be headed for what he’s coined as “macro summer” next year. According to Pal, a macro summer is the “holy grail for macro investing,” characterized by falling rates, falling inflation and growth picking up. Pal noted that tech stocks and crypto priced in a recession last year, and they’re forward-looking, indicating a more positive outlook for the economy, while the Russell 2000 and oil are more reflective of the present day and a slow economy.
Pal, a Goldman Sachs alum, previously co-managed GLG's global macro fund, one of the world's largest. Since retiring back in 2004 at age 36, he now authors a research letter, The Global Macro Investor (GMI), which is read by some of the most influential hedge funds and asset managers. He's also the founder of Real Vision, an online subscription media company specializing in long-form investor interviews.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi
GMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/
https://www.realvision.com/
0:00 Welcome Raoul Pal
1:23 Macro view today
4:37 We’re at the bottom of the business cycle now
6:02 In “macro spring” headed for “macro summer”
7:50 Why rates will go lower faster than people think
8:27 Paying interest on the debt
10:15 Did we experience a recession already?
12:29 Inflation
14:15 False narratives in macro
16:12 Central Bank’s currency debasement
19:08 Destruction of the American Dream
21:51 The debt problem
26:30 The Exponential Age and the Everything Code
30:27 The darker view
32:40 Higher for longer
34:45 Portfolio construction in this environment
39:40 Robotics and UBI
43:13 Timeline on crypto and broader adoption
48:12 Psychology of the ups and downs
53:07 Acceleration of AI
54:04 Fourth Turning
55:30 Parting thoughts
The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinksi Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/
#106 Harald Malmgren & Nicholas Glinsman: The U.S. Treasury Market Is The ‘Ultimate Wrecking Ball’
#105 Sam Burns: The Economy Isn't Headed For Recession Any Time Soon
#104 Christopher Zook On Stagflation, Energy, And A 'Generational Opportunity' In Commercial Real Estate
#103 Matt Higgins: The Only Way Out Is A Reckoning
#102 Masha Bucher On The State Of Venture Capital, Investing In AI, And How To Navigate Today's Market
#101 Larry McDonald: The Probability Of Sustained Stagflation Is Rising
#100 Bill Ackman On Activist Investing, The Economy, And Learning From Mistakes
#099 Peter Cecchini: 3 Reasons Why We're Headed Toward Recession
#098 Rick Rule: 'Potent And Very Ugly Cocktail' In A Rising Interest Rate Environment
#097 Peter Borish: My Concern Is More Than A Recession
#096 Michael Howell: It's Bonds, Not Banks, That Look Dangerous
#095 Carol Roth: You Will Own Nothing
#094 Todd Gordon: Why We're Not Headed Toward Recession
#093 Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Is Here — How Will This Crisis End
#092 Milton Berg On Why There’s Strong Evidence The Market Won’t Do Well
#091 Peter Atwater On The Troubling Disconnect Between Main Street & Wall Street
#090 Jens Nordvig On How AI Is Changing Investing Forever
#089 Jim Bianco On Why Inflation Will Be Problematic And There Won't Be A Fed Pivot
#088 Dr. Ed Altman: We’ve Reached An Inflection Point In The Credit Cycle
#087 Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months
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