Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations.
He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies.
Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund.
Takeaways
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf
The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:22 The macro view
03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it’s 1995’
05:30 Alf’s contrarian narrative
08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns
11:42 Spillover effects from China
15:41 Possible recession and risks
27:14 Conclusion
#158 Larry McDonald: We’re Entering A Sustained Inflation Regime, Why Trillions Of Dollars Are Currently Misallocated, And The Opportunity Right Now In Hard Assets
#157 Dr. Gary Shilling On The Hidden Flaws In The Economy
#156 Tom McClellan On Why The Recession Is Still Coming And Why The Second Half Of 2024 Could Be Unpleasant For Stocks
#155 Meredith Whitney On The 'Bifurcated' Economy And Consumer, Why It Will 'Pay To Be Patient' For Young Homebuyers, And The Coming 'Silver Tsunami'
#154 Dr. Art Laffer: We Are In The Middle Of A Massive Redistribution Revolution And It's Destroying Growth
#153 Amy Nixon On Inflation Running Hot And Pivoting On The Deflationary Recession Call
#152 Brian Hirschmann: This Is Probably The Most Dangerous Time In US Financial History
#151 Whitney Tilson On The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom
#149 Jeff Snider: We're Still On The Same Path To Recession
#148 'Convexity Maven' Harley Bassman: The Market Is Ahead Of The Fed By A Lot
#147 Andreas Steno On Why The Resurgence In Inflation Could Mean Another Rate Hike From The Fed
#146 Darius Dale: We’re Pivoting To A Reflation Macro Regime — What It Means For Markets
#145 David Woo, Analyst Who Nailed The 2016 And 2020 Elections, Sees Huge Headwind For The Economy Ahead Of The 2024 Vote
#144 David Rosenberg: Recessionary Forces Are Building And The Economy Is Weaker Than The Narrative Suggests
#143: Danielle DiMartino Booth On The Jobs Market, The Economy, And Why The Recession Already Started
#142 Dr. Burton Malkiel On 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street,' The Best Way To Invest, And What You're Getting Wrong About 'Efficient Markets'
#141 Marc Faber On Interest Rates, Inflation, And 'QE Infinity'
#140 DoubleLine Capital's Jeff Sherman On Fed Policy, The Economy, And Why Rate Cuts Likely Won't Happen Until June Or Later
#139 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini On The 10 Megathreats That Could Destroy Our Economy
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free
The emPOWERed Half Hour
U.S Property Podcast
Aligned Money Show
Dubai Property Podcast
The Ramsey Show
The Clark Howard Podcast