In this podcast, we explore the impacts of surging oil prices on inflation, amidst the backdrop of the Middle East conflict and its complex geopolitical dynamics. The conflict, acting as a proxy war involving various global powers, has led to a rise in oil prices. From here, it can go two ways: a cost-push inflation spiral or demand destruction due to squeezed household budgets. We analyze the situation from three main perspectives: geopolitics, cost-push inflation, and demand destruction. At face value, rising oil prices can result in higher inflation as transportation and production costs increase, potentially leading to higher wage demands, cycling higher. On the flip side, high fuel costs can also squeeze household budgets. In the past, oil prices above $100 have led markets to extrapolate consumer demand destruction. We also look at a potential reduction in oil demand as people look for more economical alternatives, such as electric vehicles, but conclude that battery prices are not low enough yet for widespread adoption on an economic basis. In conclusion, the interplay between oil prices, geopolitics, and inflation is complex and multi-faceted, with various potential outcomes depending on how these factors evolve over time.
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Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation manager that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to Nucleus Wealth Website.
The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796
Responsible Investing DisclaimerNucleus Wealth offers all investors the option to tailor their investment portfolios according to the investor’s own brand of personal ethics. While Nucleus Wealth maintains ethical standards of integrity, honesty and reliability, it does not seek to impose these on its investors. Rather, Nucleus Wealth offers investors a system of investment that incorporates three core strategies: (i) customisable; (ii) transparent; and (iii) safe. Within this, investors are given the ability to customise their investments insofar as it aligns with their ethical preferences, rather than that of the fund manager, by using screens and tilts. Once the investor’s portfolio has been adjusted, Nucleus Wealth provides the investor with a company profile, access to performance dashboards and detailed monthly performance reports of each company within the investor’s portfolio to further inform the investor on their investment decision and the company’s ethical standing as it aligns with the screens and tilts opted for. Nucleus Wealth utilises a number of domestic and international sources to identify whether companies from particular countries or sectors fall within the categories of screens and tilts which the investor may choose to apply. While Nucleus Wealth undertakes its own fundamental analysis on each company, there is also the risk that investors could reach a different conclusion to Nucleus Wealth on whether a company falls within the frame of responsible filters being applied. For more information visit Nucleus Wealth's responsibility-related statements.
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