Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?
06:24 - Industry performance update
07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?
11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?
12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator
15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction
20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?
21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio
24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?
25:25 - The importance of skewness
31:06 - Mind the timeframe
34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)
38:15 - No pain, no gain...
43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)
47:33 - Dealing with a world in disruption
50:48 - Excitement and worries about 2024
57:05 - What is up for next episode?
Resources discussed in this Episode:
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
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SI203: A new way of doing Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker
IL05: The Road to Economic Stability ft. Andrew Smithers
SI202: Trend Following in a Binary World ft. Mark Rzepczynski
IL04: Inflation & The Great Demographic Reversal ft. Manoj Pradhan
SI201: Trend Followers Positioned for Recession ft. Richard Brennan
IL03: Finding Optimism in Times of Crises ft. Larry Siegel
SI200: Stacking Returns into a Tightning Cycle ft. Alan Dunne
IL02: Cold War & US Relations with China ft. James A. Fok
SI199: Achieving Highest CAGR through Optimal Leverage ft. Rob Carver
IL01: Turning Water Into Wine with Diversification ft. Antti Ilmanen
SI198: Trend Following wearing Loose Pants ft. Jerry Parker
GM20: Bitcoin & The Great Power Shift ft. Nathaniel Whittemore
SI197: Why Trend Following Works...Especially Now ft. Mark Rzepczynski
GM19: Brace Yourself for Dramatic Market Moves ft. Peter Atwater
SI196: Where Next for Trend Following? ft. Rob Carver
GM18: Boomers, Tax & Deflation ft. Alfonso Peccatiello & Andreas Steno Larsen
SI195: Trend Following 101 ft. Richard Brennan
GM17: Elon Musk...From Showman to Charlatan ft. Grant Williams
SI194: Trend Following & Manager Selection ft. Alan Dunne
GM16: Central Banking in a De-Globalized World ft. Joseph Wang
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