How do you avoid overfitting, how loose is too loose in terms of loose pants and how should you approach sample sizes when designing your trading systems? What are complex adaptive systems, how do they apply to financial markets and why does regular math just not cut it? How does trend following differ from other strategies, what makes trend following so robust and what are the limitations for traditional statistics? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:08 - Industry performance update
08:21 - Q1, Adam: In terms of loose pants, how loose is too loose?
13:36 - Trading with different models
15:42 - Adam Q2: What is a reasonable sample size in real trade observations, to compare against backtest statistics?
18:23 - A deep dive into complex adaptive systems (CAS)
20:29 - The 5 properties of CAS
25:24 - Examples of non-linearty in financial markets
30:50 - Emerging properties in financial markets
33:59 - Self organization
36:33 - Adaption and evolution
40:10 - Feedback loops
43:11 - What does CAS and trend following have in common?
49:38 - The limitations of traditional statistics
01:01:14 - Summing it all up
01:04:48 - What's next?
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
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TTU121: Trend Following... from Optional to Essential ft. Nick Baltas
SI217: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Allocation ft. Rob Carver
GM27: Central Banks were Warned about their Failed Policies ft. William White
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IL09: The Money Revolution...Rethinking Economic Growth ft. Richard Duncan
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IL08: Why The Best Quitters Win ft. Annie Duke
SI213: Trend Following Records are being set in 2022? ft. Richard Brennan
GM25: A realtime account of going through "hell" in the markets ft. Michael Gayed
SI212: Trend Following in a Soft, Hard or No Landing ft. Alan Dunne
GM24: The Real Cause of the Global Energy Crisis (Part 1) ft. Adam Rozencwajg
SI211: A Trend Following Renaissance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
GM23: The Wars of Capital ft. Michael Howell
SI210: Trend Following Q & A ft. Rob Carver
IL07: Equality Across the Globe can be Achieved ft. Oded Galor
SI209: Trend Following...The Best Way to Surf the Markets ft. Richard Brennan
ALO11: From Ballet Dancer to CIO ft. Cameron Dawson
SI208: Trend Following in Today's Economy ft. Alan Dunne
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