Episode 33: Oil’s Not Well – How the Drastic Fall in Prices will Impact South Asia

Demand for the world’s most important commodity, oil, has crumbled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the fourth week of April this year, the US oil prices plunged to below zero for first time in history. The fundamentals of the oil industry are not determined merely by demand and supply. Geopolitics, the politics of exchange rates and paper trading also impact its performance. This could be, by far, the greatest crisis the oil industry has ever faced impacting upstream and downstream activities. It is estimated that more than 400 industry-related companies worldwide will not be able to bear the production cost at US$20 per barrel.

This conversation between Dr S Narayan (Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS) and Mr Vikram Mehta (Executive Chairman of Brookings India), looks at the impact and challenges that the dive in crude oil price will have on South Asia’s oil and energy sector, as well as the economic impact (consumption and net exports) on India. For India, there is also an urgent need to build linkages and pipelines between oil and gas producers in other parts of the region such as Bangladesh.