In this grooving episode, Kurt and Tim discuss Temporal Discounting and it’s closely related cousins. Temporal discounting is where we tend to value events in the near term more than similar events that are off in the distance. Another way to say it is that we discount – or reduce – our perceived value of events scheduled far off in the future. (The “timing” element is what gives it the name “temporal.”)
This is a very common bias and is closely related to Hyperbolic Discounting, which is the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs. (Think of Seinfeld’s Nighttime Guy vs. Morning Guy.) And Temporal Construal, where near-term events are valued in very concrete ways, but distant-term events seem very vague. And, a slightly more distant relative in this family of biases is Preference Reversal. With Preference Reversal, we see how the relative preference for one option over another changes with order or framing, such as when we see it.
All of these biases evolved for good reasons over thousands of years of human development and in much simpler times. But today, our world is very complex. And these biases can get in the way of our best decision making.
NOTE TO LISTENERS: This episode was recorded on March 11, 2020, just two days after the World Health Organization declared coronavirus a pandemic and Kurt and Tim were in the studio together. But it was still days before any cities declared shelter in place and a full two weeks before Minnesota, where Kurt and Tim live, made the declaration. Since then, we’ve been recording remotely.
Links
Kurt Nelson, PhD: @WhatMotivates
Tim Houlihan: @THoulihan
Common Biases and Heuristics: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XHpBr0VFcaT8wIUpr-9zMIb79dFMgOVFRxIZRybiftI/edit#
Gretchen Chapman, PhD: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0272989X9501500408
Seinfeld Night Guy vs. Morning Guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-Cz-LK16g4
Tim Urban, “Wait, but Why?”: https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/doing-a-ted-talk-the-full-story.html
Veruca Salt in Willy Wonka “I Want It Now”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pqsy7V0wphI
Christopher Hsee on General Evaluability Theory: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691610374586
Bazerman, Max, The Power of Noticing: https://www.amazon.com/Power-Noticing-What-Best-Leaders/dp/1476700303
Harris CJ, Laibson D., “Hyperbolic Discounting and Consumption.” Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Volume 1. Eighth World Congress; 2002 p. 258-298: https://scholar.harvard.edu/laibson/publications/hyperbolic-discounting-and-consumption
No Regrets? Really? Why Regrets Actually Bring Us Hope | Daniel H. Pink
How To Stay Motivated So You Exceed Your Goals | Ayelet Fishbach PhD
A Long, Happy Life? The Impacts of Increasing Our Longevity | Bradley Schurman
Why Finding Pleasure in Life is a Painful Journey | Paul Bloom
How Collaboration is Growing Behavioral Science: Learnings from BX Arabia
How To Turn Your Creative Dreams Into Reality | Jeff Madoff
How To Create New Goals That Will Really Motivate You in 2022
The Behavioral Science Books We Just Couldn’t Put Down in 2021 With Louise Ward
More Than Just A Checklist: How to Effectively Apply Behavioral Science | Torben Emmerling
Our Love Of Music And The Influence Of The Pandemic With Mark Thorley
Please Help Us by Voting for Behavioral Grooves - it takes 10 seconds
Trust: The Four Key Steps to Genuinely Build It | Sandra Sucher
Focus More on HOW to Think, and Less on WHAT to Think | Dr. Howard Rankin PhD
Need a Laugh to Get Through Your Workday? Dan Hill
Feeling Fearful: Why People Seek Out Conspiracy Theories | Eric Oliver
Why We Are More Vulnerable To Harmful Conspiracy Theories Than We Think | Andy Norman
Conspiracy Theories: How To Talk to A Science Denier | Lee McIntyre
Conspiracy Theories: Hidden Brain‘s Shankar Vedantam | The Delusion of Nations
Halloween Special: Grooving on Scary Biases
Why Does Rude Behavior Really Bother Us So Much? | Trevor Foulk PhD
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free
The Poetry of Science
Hidden Brain
Something You Should Know
The Marginal Revolution Podcast
Choiceology with Katy Milkman