On October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy slammed ashore north of Atlantic City, New Jersey. Hurricane Sandy's devastating storm track is a rare one among hurricanes; a new statistical analysis estimates that the track of the storm — which took a left-hand turn in the Atlantic before slamming into the East Coast — has an average probability of happening only once every 700 years. The storm's near-perpendicular strike on the coast was a major factor in the severe flooding seen in New York, New Jersey and other nearby states. But the rareness of the storm's track doesn't mean that the coast is safe from other severe storms. Don’t have a misimpression that we don't have to worry, that it's going to be 700 years until we have another surge, it’s just an average and could happen again next year or next decade. Hurricane Sandy caused about 150 deaths, along with billions of dollars in damage when it hit the Caribbean and the U.S. East Coast in late October 2012. The storm's power came from a combination of factors, including its large size while out at sea and a full moon that made tides 20 percent higher than normal, both of which ramped up Sandy's storm surge. Researchers also pointed to weather patterns that affected Sandy's track. A region of high pressure blocked Sandy from taking a more common track out over the western North Atlantic, forcing the storm into the coast. Sandy also interacted with a mid-level, low-pressure system in the atmosphere, which helped push the storm along its unusual track. To study the rarity of Sandy's track, Columbia University mathematicians had to use a model to generate synthetic tropical cyclones. The researchers could not rely on previously recorded data, as Sandy's trajectory and near-direct impact on New Jersey was unprecedented in the historical record. The researchers' statistical model generated millions of these synthetic hurricanes, which were then used to determine rates for landfall. Most of the tracked landfalls in the model grazed the coast before veering out into the Atlantic. Sandy, by contrast, hit the coast at an angle of just 17 degrees from perpendicular, almost perfectly crisscrossing the typical storm track. The sustained winds toward the coast from the direct path is continually pushing a wall of water onto the coast, and results in a greater surge magnitude, compared to more typical in-land winds sweeping along the coast. This large surge pushed huge amounts of water onto streets in Manhattan. The peak water level, the surge plus the tide at the Battery, Manhattan's southern tip, was 14 feet above the average low tide level.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free