Podbean logo
  • Discover
  • Podcast Features
    • Podcast Hosting

      Start your podcast with all the features you need.

    • Podbean AI Podbean AI

      AI-Enhanced Audio Quality and Content Generation.

    • Blog to Podcast

      Repurpose your blog into an engaging podcast.

    • Video to Podcast

      Convert YouTube playlists to podcasts, videos to audios.

  • Monetization
    • Ads Marketplace

      Join Ads Marketplace to earn through podcast sponsorships.

    • PodAds

      Manage your ads with dynamic ad insertion capability.

    • Apple Podcasts Subscriptions Integration

      Monetize with Apple Podcasts Subscriptions via Podbean.

    • Live Streaming

      Earn rewards and recurring income from Fan Club membership.

  • Podbean App
    • Podcast Studio

      Easy-to-use audio recorder app.

    • Podcast App

      The best podcast player & podcast app.

  • Help and Support
    • Help Center

      Get the answers and support you need.

    • Podbean Academy

      Resources and guides to launch, grow, and monetize podcast.

    • Podbean Blog

      Stay updated with the latest podcasting tips and trends.

    • What’s New

      Check out our newest and recently released features!

    • Podcasting Smarter

      Podcast interviews, best practices, and helpful tips.

  • Popular Topics
    • How to Start a Podcast

      The step-by-step guide to start your own podcast.

    • How to Start a Live Podcast

      Create the best live podcast and engage your audience.

    • How to Monetize a Podcast

      Tips on making the decision to monetize your podcast.

    • How to Promote Your Podcast

      The best ways to get more eyes and ears on your podcast.

    • Podcast Advertising 101

      Everything you need to know about podcast advertising.

    • Mobile Podcast Recording Guide

      The ultimate guide to recording a podcast on your phone.

    • How to Use Group Recording

      Steps to set up and use group recording in the Podbean app.

  • All Arts Business Comedy Education
  • Fiction Government Health & Fitness History Kids & Family
  • Leisure Music News Religion & Spirituality Science
  • Society & Culture Sports Technology True Crime TV & Film
  • Live
  • How to Start a Podcast
  • How to Start a Live Podcast
  • How to Monetize a podcast
  • How to Promote Your Podcast
  • How to Use Group Recording
  • Log in
  • Start your podcast for free
  • Podcasting
    • Podcast Features
      • Podcast Hosting

        Start your podcast with all the features you need.

      • Podbean AI Podbean AI

        AI-Enhanced Audio Quality and Content Generation.

      • Blog to Podcast

        Repurpose your blog into an engaging podcast.

      • Video to Podcast

        Convert YouTube playlists to podcasts, videos to audios.

    • Monetization
      • Ads Marketplace

        Join Ads Marketplace to earn through podcast sponsorships.

      • PodAds

        Manage your ads with dynamic ad insertion capability.

      • Apple Podcasts Subscriptions Integration

        Monetize with Apple Podcasts Subscriptions via Podbean.

      • Live Streaming

        Earn rewards and recurring income from Fan Club membership.

    • Podbean App
      • Podcast Studio

        Easy-to-use audio recorder app.

      • Podcast App

        The best podcast player & podcast app.

  • Advertisers
  • Enterprise
  • Pricing
  • Resources
    • Help and Support
      • Help Center

        Get the answers and support you need.

      • Podbean Academy

        Resources and guides to launch, grow, and monetize podcast.

      • Podbean Blog

        Stay updated with the latest podcasting tips and trends.

      • What’s New

        Check out our newest and recently released features!

      • Podcasting Smarter

        Podcast interviews, best practices, and helpful tips.

    • Popular Topics
      • How to Start a Podcast

        The step-by-step guide to start your own podcast.

      • How to Start a Live Podcast

        Create the best live podcast and engage your audience.

      • How to Monetize a Podcast

        Tips on making the decision to monetize your podcast.

      • How to Promote Your Podcast

        The best ways to get more eyes and ears on your podcast.

      • Podcast Advertising 101

        Everything you need to know about podcast advertising.

      • Mobile Podcast Recording Guide

        The ultimate guide to recording a podcast on your phone.

      • How to Use Group Recording

        Steps to set up and use group recording in the Podbean app.

  • Discover
  • Log in
    Sign up free
Razib Khan's Unsupervised Learning

Razib Khan's Unsupervised Learning

Science:Life Sciences

Jacob L. Shapiro: geopolitical pasts, present and futures

Jacob L. Shapiro: geopolitical pasts, present and futures

2022-04-01
Download Right click and do "save link as"
Today on Unsupervised Learning Razib talks to Jacob L. Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments. He overviews the geopolitical perspective in understanding international relations, one predicated on looking at nation-states as fundamental units of analysis, in order to achieve a descriptive understanding of the world. Shapiro points out that the more familiar “schools” of foreign policy, from realism to liberal internationalism, use geopolitics as a tool to understand the world but apply their own value-sets to establish particular policies that further certain values and interests. Fundamentally, geopolitics differs in that it is an empirical rather than normative discipline. Shapiro then highlights geopolitics’ 19th-century origins in Europe, its decline by association with Germany in the 1940’s, and its recent renaissance in the US as well persistence in Latin America. The conversation then shifts from theory and abstraction to current events in Russia. Shapiro admits that his own research group put the odds Russia would invade at 30%, in large part because they believed that Vladimir Putin could have gotten what he wanted mostly through intimidation rather than invasion. That being said, he points out that there is a very long history of the Russian state wanting to push to the Carpathian mountains that bound Ukraine’s west due to concerns about defensible frontiers. Shapiro argues that the invasion’s fundamental raison d’etre is the quest for “strategic depth.” He also relays accounts of Putin ruminating on maps and imperial history while in COVID-19 isolation, although he cautions against psychoanalyzing him too much.

Razib next asks Shapiro for his take on globalization in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Shapiro argues that we are truly moving into a multipolar world that is more similar to what occurred in the 1890’s when there was a balance of power in Europe. Shapiro points out that that too was a time of economic and cultural tumult and creativity, Europe’s “Belle Epoque.” For him, this earlier period of globalization illustrates both the promise and peril of a geopolitically balanced world where fates were interlaced by complex networks of free trade. Shapiro’s main worry is a “Black Swan” event with the power to trigger a global conflict, a freak event analogous to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a Serbian radical that ignited World War I. He cautions that a world with more balance of power between nations and leaders, unpredictable decisions grow more likely.

Shapiro also argues strongly that the US is under a misimpression in terms of its power and influence in a world where other powers are rising. He also greets the idea that demographics is destiny with skepticism, pointing out that in the 1930’s Germany’s demographic profile did not indicate youthful bellicosity. Though Shapiro acknowledges the headwinds that demographics will present to both China and Europe, he argues we shouldn’t underestimate their future possibilities.

The conversation closes with the possibility that instability and reorganization will result in a ferment of cultural creativity that might match the decades around 1900. Though we are in for a great geopolitical shift, Shapiro sees opportunities and promise in the US, which still remains a dynamic society and a magnet for talent. Finally, he tells us to keep an eye on Central Asia as a locus for instability and change due to both location and authoritarian governments.

view more

More Episodes

Manvir Singh: the shamanic roots of all religion
2025-07-02
Noah Carl and Bo Winegard: probing the intellectual darker web
2025-05-30
Tim Lee: 2025 and the driverless car revolution
2025-05-24
Bonus monologue: Finland as Germania
2025-05-21
Laura Spinney: rise of the proto-Indo-Europeans
2025-05-17
Bonus monologue: man the hybrid monster
2025-05-11
John Sailer: a time of troubles in higher education
2025-05-10
Jacob Shell: academia must diversify or die
2025-05-02
Matt Welch: from blog pioneer to podcasting mainstay
2025-04-30
Bonus monologue: ancient North Africans and the Green Sahara
2025-04-30
Andrew Song: cooling the planet with technology
2025-04-23
Zineb Riboua: realism in foreign policy in 2025
2025-04-17
Mark Lutter: charter cities and the urban future
2025-04-06
Graeme Wood: Germany's turn to the right
2025-03-28
Leighton Woodhouse: against the rise of the anti-woke cancel culture and MAGA cultural hegemony
2025-03-23
Kevin Klatt: Nutrition, health, MAHA and GLP-1
2025-03-15
Charles Murray: 50 years on the public scene
2025-03-10
Titus Techera: Post-Modern Conservative in a post-national Europe
2025-03-04
Nathan Lents: Sex, truths and gender wars
2025-03-03
Antonio Regalado: CRISPR babies 6 years later
2025-02-27
  • ←
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • →
012345678910111213141516171819

Get this podcast on your
phone, FREE

Download Podbean app on App Store Download Podbean app on Google Play

Create your
podcast in
minutes

  • Full-featured podcast site
  • Unlimited storage and bandwidth
  • Comprehensive podcast stats
  • Distribute to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and more
  • Make money with your podcast
Get started

It is Free

  • Podcast Services

    • Podcast Features
    • Pricing
    • Enterprise Solution
    • Private Podcast
    • The Podcast App
    • Live Stream
    • Audio Recorder
    • Remote Recording
    • Podbean AI
  •  
    • Create a Podcast
    • Video Podcast
    • Start Podcasting
    • Start Radio Talk Show
    • Education Podcast
    • Church Podcast
    • Nonprofit Podcast
    • Get Sermons Online
    • Free Audiobooks
  • MONETIZATION & MORE

    • Podcast Advertising
    • Dynamic Ads Insertion
    • Apple Podcasts Subscriptions
    • Switch to Podbean
    • YouTube to Podcast
    • Blog to Podcast
    • Submit Your Podcast
    • Podbean Plugins
    • Developers
  • KNOWLEDGE BASE

    • How to Start a Podcast
    • How to Start a Live Podcast
    • How to Monetize a Podcast
    • How to Promote Your Podcast
    • Mobile Podcast Recording Guide
    • How to Use Group Recording
    • Podcast Advertising 101
  • Support

    • Support Center
    • What’s New
    • Free Webinars
    • Podcast Events
    • Podbean Academy
    • Podbean Amplified Podcast
    • Badges
    • Resources
  • Podbean

    • About Us
    • Podbean Blog
    • Careers
    • Press and Media
    • Green Initiative
    • Affiliate Program
    • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Consent Preferences
  • Copyright © 2015-2025 Podbean.com