The Four Stages of an Economic Slowdown | Eric Basmajian

On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research. After correctly identifying signs of decelerating growth months ahead of most, Eric comes back to the podcast to share how he forecast the economic slowdown.

As the yield curve inverts, GDP numbers begin downward revisions and investors deal with soaring prices across the whole commodity complex. Eric lays out the major warning signs that can help identify cyclical changes in the economy.

Referencing Edward E. Leamer's paper "Housing IS the Business Cycle,” Eric also gives listeners a crash course on the connection between housing and economic growth. To hear more, tune in!

Read Housing IS The Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428

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Follow Eric Basmajian: @EPBResearch

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(06:46)・The Economic Pyramid

(13:24)・Housing IS the Business Cycle

(29:05)・Fireblocks Ad

(30:24)・Falling Corporate Profits

(35:33)・Risk Assets

(40:55)・Is Inflation Transitory, Or Not?

(47:25)・Rising Populism

(53:34)・How To Solve The Growth Problem