Shake Down the Numbers: Notre Dame Football Stats and Analytics
Sports:Football
Episode 25: 2022 Season Preview, Cooper's Model, 3rd and Gold
(2:25) Season outlook from hosts Cooper Klaus, Kevin Murray and Eric Thomas. With a new Head Coach in Marucs Freeman, a new Quarterback in Tyler Buchner, and significant staff turnover, the 2022 FIghting Irish have more uncertainty about the identity of the team than any Notre Dame team since 2017.
(5:30) During the offseason, Cooper built a game predictions model to calculate the chance for teams to win each of their respective games based on ELO rankings, efficiency rankings on offense/defense, team composite talent and other factors. Cooper breaks down the details of how this model operates, and the guys discuss some of their takeaways pertaining to both the Irish and their Opponents from the generated data. The hosts dive into the opener in Columbus, and predict whether Cooper will be a sad man in the stands of the Shoe.
(14:30) Tyler Buchner talk. (NOTE: Buchner was not formally announced as the starting Quarterback at time of recording.) As a Freshman, TB12 showed glimpses of explosive play capability but also demonstrated some rust and lack of comfort leading the offense. The hosts discuss what they liked from his freshman campaign, where the improvement should come and where they want to see the offense grow around him. The hosts dive into the Clemson game and talk through what to watch for in Buchner's development versus arguably the most talented and deep defensive line in the country.
(26:00) BYU and USC talk. BYU is a veteran team with a talented Quarterback in Jaren Hall, an experienced OL and a mentality that should make them impervious to the temptations of Sin City; a perfect storm for a Shamrock Series matchup in Las Vegas. Sportsbooks at large and Cooper's model have this game being potentially much closer than any Irish fan would like to see, and the hosts dive into how the Cougars match up with the Irish. USC hired offensive innovator and brisket butcher Lincoln Riley away from the Sooners, and have seen a large contingent of talent roll into town this offseason, adding star Quarterback Caleb Williams from OU, 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison from Pitt, and the dynamic Runningback Travis Dye from Oregon. The hosts discuss the difficulty in predicting a team with this much turnover and what to expect from the challenge from USC, as well as how the Irish match up versus the new look Trojans.
(32:00) Record predictions! The gang offers up their predictions for the first year of the Freeman era, balancing the known factors such as the strength ND has in the trenches or the limited depth at WR with the unknown of a first time head coach, a new staff and a young, inexperienced Quarterback.
(35:40) 3rd and Gold! Working with ND legend Brady Quinn's 3rd and Goal Foundation, we have designed a system that turns prop bets into pledges to donate to the welfare of Veterans. Bet on your favorite players to perform and the NDFB Stats and Analytics team will follow up with links to donate based on your pledges. Pledges that hit will also give listeners the chance to win prizes in our giveaways this season. For the Blue & Gold game we gave away a custom ND Football Jersey, and during the season we will look to give away more unique items to further drive donations to the 3rd and Goal Foundation. To learn more about 3rd and Goal, visit https://www.3rdandgoalfoundation.org/.
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