It's Mid-term Election Eve (11/7/22)

(11/7/22) It's Mid-term Election Eve (fixing the clocks for CST). Markets' response to hawkish Fed statements by testing resistance at 50-DMA today. All bets are off until after the midterm elections; re-testing of markets lows are coming; why businesses' tapping of credit lines are not a good omen. What shook the markets: Headline data vs underlying details; household surveys vs government reports (lagging indicators). Economic weaknesses will eventually show up on the surface. Markets want a Fed pivot; what will cause the turn? The Fed says it can fix it. Precursors to conditions sufficient to flip the Fed include credit spreads in Bonds = stress in credit markets, and Yield Curves, 60% of which are now inverted = economic stress. Recessions are historically not well-predicted; everyone is calling for one now. "Economists have predicted 9 of the last 3 recessions." Pre-election commentary: "The heart of democracy is at stake..." except, we're a Republic, not a Democracy. It's not fundamentals that matter now; it's "what's the Fed going to do?" Markets tend to perform well in the 12-months following mid-term elections. SEG-1: Markets' Response to a Hawkish Fed SEG-2: Headline Economic Data vs Underlying Details SEG-3: What Will Cause the Fed to Pivot? SEG-4: Pre-election market commentary Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hKlmelhn40&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2677s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: "What Will Drive Markets Next?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiD1TFYkAn8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=4s -------- Our previous show is here: "The Fed Really Doesn't Know What It's Doing" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAHVpug7w7s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2680s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "Economic Stagnation Arrives As “Sugar Rush” Fades" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-stagnation-arrives-as-sugar-rush-fades/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #MidTermElections #HawkishFed #CPIreport #LaggingIndicators #CreditStress #YieldCurve #Markets #Money #Investing