Was Black Friday a bust? (11/28/22)

(11/28/22) Was Black Friday a bust? It's make-or-break time for Wall Street: Retail Sales numbers are nominal, and do not taking into consideration inflation impact: 78% jump in lay-away purchasing; stocks are trying to re-price-in downwardly revised earnings estimates. FOMC Meeting Minutes tend to suggest a terminal interest rate of 5.25%. Why do retail sales matter? 70% of GDP; markets are trying to price-in "reversion to normalcy;" how deep will the recession be? excess exuberance is already being wrung out. What is Goldman seeing that everyone else is missing? A history of Retail Sales data & factoring in Inflation; We're spending more, but buying less. The Saga of Mrs. Roberts' Birthday: why is everyone discounting (and why this doesn't show up in sale figures, but do appear on balance sheets). No more background checks for rental applications; businesses closing in Oregon (and elsewhere) because of high crime; the problem with decriminalizing crime & store closures: Food Deserts; another problem with "free stuff" is the pulling-forward of consumption. SEG-1: Markets' Make-0r-Break Moment SEG-2: Why Retail Sales Matter SEG-3: Mrs. Roberts' Birthday: Spending More Buying Less SEG-4: De-Criminalizing Crime & The Problem with Store Closures Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIiWDspukko&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2837s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: "Will the Thanksgiving Rally Continue?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROX59eThXyc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Warnings Are Still Falling, Just Not as Badly" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nivvLPzvJQ8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=3&t=2776s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "No Recession In 2023? Is That Possible?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/no-recession-in-2023-is-that-possible/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #RetailSales #BlackFriday #FederalReserve #FOMCMeetingMinutes #Crime #Markets #Money #Investing