#036 Jim Rickards: We're Looking At A Global Recession

Jim Rickards (@jamesgrickards) returns to the Julia La Roche Show for episode 36 to discuss his new book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.

In this episode, Rickards shares his macro view and why we may be headed for a global recession. He also provides a deep dive into supply chains, describing when and how they broke down and why they won't return to the way they were before 2019. He also shares the emergence of what he calls "supply chain 2.0," which he predicts will consist of a college of nations.

Elsewhere, Rickards discusses his take on inflation and why deflation is coming faster than you might think. Finally, he shares his best asset allocation strategies for these uncertain times.

Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

0:00 Jim's new book "Sold Out"

0:54 View of the global macroeconomy

1:37 The supply chain is the economy

3:33 What do China, the war in Ukraine, and climate change have to do with supply chains?

6:58 China's Zero-Covid policy and its possible consequences

12:11 We're looking at a global recession, and that's rare

13:24 The future supply chain will look very different

14:35 Why the supply chains broke down and won't go back to the way they were

20:00 Supply Chain 1.0

23:42 What happened when Trump put tariffs on soybeans

30:24 National security and geopolitics

33:48 A college of nations

39:00 Peak China

42:00 Inflation

47:05 Why the Fed can't do anything about the supply side of the equation

49:49 Disinflation and deflation

51:12 Severe recession

54:34 How long would it take for the Fed to cut rates?

1:01:08 Central bankers' worst nightmare

1:05:10 What would a deflationary scenario mean for the economy?