"The Feeling of Idea Scarcity" by John Wentworth

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mfPHTWsFhzmcXw8ta/the-feeling-of-idea-scarcity

Here’s a story you may recognize. There's a bright up-and-coming young person - let's call her Alice. Alice has a cool idea. It seems like maybe an important idea, a big idea, an idea which might matter. A new and valuable idea. It’s the first time Alice has come up with a high-potential idea herself, something which she’s never heard in a class or read in a book or what have you.

So Alice goes all-in pursuing this idea. She spends months fleshing it out. Maybe she writes a paper, or starts a blog, or gets a research grant, or starts a company, or whatever, in order to pursue the high-potential idea, bring it to the world.

And sometimes it just works!

… but more often, the high-potential idea doesn’t actually work out. Maybe it turns out to be basically-the-same as something which has already been tried. Maybe it runs into some major barrier, some not-easily-patchable flaw in the idea. Maybe the problem it solves just wasn’t that important in the first place.

From Alice’ point of view, the possibility that her one high-potential idea wasn’t that great after all is painful. The idea probably feels to Alice like the single biggest intellectual achievement of her life. To lose that, to find out that her single greatest intellectual achievement amounts to little or nothing… that hurts to even think about. So most likely, Alice will reflexively look for an out. She’ll look for some excuse to ignore the similar ideas which have already been tried, some reason to think her idea is different. She’ll look for reasons to believe that maybe the major barrier isn’t that much of an issue, or that we Just Don’t Know whether it’s actually an issue and therefore maybe the idea could work after all. She’ll look for reasons why the problem really is important. Maybe she’ll grudgingly acknowledge some shortcomings of the idea, but she’ll give up as little ground as possible at each step, update as slowly as she can.