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(2/16/23) Buyers are consistently moving into the markets, and there are two ways this can go: Trade sideways, or price declines. The Citibank Surprise Index indicates optimism may weaken; that anticipated recession is not being picked up in economic data...yet. Markets remain in rising trendline; a corrective process is needed. The Economic Conundrum: Good numbers vs Fed desire to quell economic growth leading to more inflation; there is concern this time economy is severely leveraged, and impact of rate hikes on debt service. Still to be seen is impact of higher corporate tax (15%) on earnings. Markets continue to open weak but finish strong. How much remaining economic octane is hold-over from pandemic stimulus? M-2 is still a high percentage of GDP. What if Recession is delayed until 2024 as a result of the lag-effect? Why should the Fed consider lowering interest rates if the economy is doing so well? The odds of increasing Quantitative Tightening are going up. Why does the Fed need a recession? The Fed needs consumers to stop spending. Raquel Welch passes away at 82; Markets and Investor convictions: Markets are not paying attention to the Fed or economic data. The FOMO, YOLO Risk-on appetite continues, right or wrong--it is what it is. What if markets continue upwards and are then hit with downturn--possibility of 30% loss.
SEG-1: Buyers Continue to Move Into Markets
SEG-2: Economic Conundrum: Good Economic Numbers vs. Fed Desire to Quell Economy
SEG-3: What if Recession is Delayed Until 2024?
SEG-4: Raquel Welch & Investor Convictions
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bUizW6SCn0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell | "Watch for the Lag-effect of Interest Rates" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVzMd8cHEPs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "No End to Fed Rate Hikes in Sight"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3I6xtV7j-0U&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s
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Register for the next Lunch & Learn on Raising Money Smart Kids (2/23/23):
https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/8516736369321/WN_u6P-EAklT0iIgAXc1ChgrA
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Articles mentioned in this podcast:
"Janet Yellen Should Focus On HOPE"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/janet-yellen-should-focus-on-hope
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