PE39: What will the Bitcoin network be worth in 2030, based on trend?

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This is the thirty-ninth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.

Contents

00:00 Intro

00:31 Bitcoin supply in BTC-terms

02:07 Bitcoin supply in USD-terms (market cap)

02:41 Four basic regression trendlines

03:09 Bitcoin market cap power trendline (96% R-squared)

05:13 Log scale

06:30 1-sigma percentile moves

07:05 2-sigma percentile moves

19:36 Predictive trendlines

Here we compare the Bitcoin network supply in native bitcoins with the Bitcoin network supply in US-dollars. We also layer in its best-fitting trendline, a power regression, as well as 1- and 2-sigma percentile bands to better understand where we are now versus historical levels.

Coefficients:

y = a * x ^ b

y = y-intercept * x ^ slope

y = 4.39E-22 * x ^ 657%

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Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.