(3/27/23) In the aftermath of the bank fail and bailout fiasco, the Fed's QT is essentially being negated by bond buys; despite that, markets are setting a rising trend. Gold buyers read real interest rates; stock buyers read earnings estimates. While the Fed continues to focus on inflation, markets are pricing-in a 110-bp rate cut by Summer's end. 15-years after Bear-Stearns, the component missing for full financial crisis is a lack of faith in the system. It's all about stability, but risk remains of breaking something this year. The fallacy of the Fed's Bank Stress Tests; a simple explanation of what went wrong at SVB; the next area of risk will be in commercial real estate. Multi-family real estate also at risk because of origins of construction loans; too much supply, not enough demand. The use of buy-now, pay-later schemes; why Millennials and Gen-Z cannot save: Instant gratification vs delayed gratification.
SEG-1: While Fed Focuses on Inflation, Markets Price-in 110-bp rate cut by summer
SEG-2: The Missing Component for Full Financial Crisis
SEG-3: After the Banks, the Next Area of Risk
SEG-4: Financial Habits of Millennials & Gen-Z
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNMgUcqGS-s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell | "Markets Continue to Establish Higher Bottoms," is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NESVV0o89Rg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuiwiJLZ3oP_26MezKj1bhsu&index=1&t=1s
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Our previous show is here: "Why SVB Failure is Not Likely a One-off Event"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhFuxky6gIw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s
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Articles mentioned in this podcast:
"Recession Indicators Say The Fed Broke Something"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/recession-indicators-says-the-fed-will-break-something/
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