Karen Karniol-Tambour - Macro Headwinds vs. Tech Tailwinds - [Invest Like the Best, EP.329]

Today’s conversation was recorded during last week’s Sohn Conference. I sat down with Karen Karniol-Tambour, Co-CIO at Bridgewater Associates. I hosted Karen on this show two years ago and if you listened to that, you’ll remember she has a rare skill for distilling and analysing complex macro topics. Today’s environment is strikingly different to the summer of 2021 so this is a timely conversation on the big macro variables that are on investors’ minds today. Please enjoy my conversation with Karen Karniol-Tambour.

Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller

Sohn 2023 | Patrick Collison in conversation Sam Altman

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.

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Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.

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Show Notes

(00:03:05) - (First question) - Her take on AI and watching this new technology unfold

(00:06:39) - Things she’s watching in the AI space that might lead to taking portfolio action 

(00:09:19) - Potentially using AI to inform or make investment decisions 

(00:10:17) - Why might it be the case that no one can use AI for investing in macro markets

(00:11:14) - What she’d write about regarding the general state of capital markets today

(00:13:46) - What pricing is telling us about market sentiment writ large

(00:15:47) - Thinking about portfolio positioning in light of the unattractive state of risk assets

(00:17:17) - Her perspectives on gold historically and today 

(00:20:09) - Big long-term slow-moving macro variables that aren’t quite visible yet 

(00:22:09) - The all-weather portfolio and building one in light of so much uncertainty 

(00:24:38) - The rise of China, its growing power, and potential conflicts with the US 

(00:28:01) - Monitoring for things like the banking crisis beneath the public narrative 

(00:31:13) - Non-obvious variables that currently have her attention 

(00:33:29) - “Overrated or underrated” rapid-fire questions

(00:36:04) - What it’s been like being the CIO of Bridgewater so far