Sunday Thoughts June 25, 2023

The last 48 hours provided another example of a Caesar moment that fell short due to the guy who was cast in the role of Caesar losing his nerve at the last minute. Someone on Russian Twitter noted that Trump was supposed to be the man but lost his nerve on January 6. Bolsonaro had his moment on January 8th. Imran Khan had his chance to lead a revolt against the ruling junta but lost his nerve . Now we have Prigozhin backing down at the last minute.

There are two ways to look at this. One is the system is breaking down and that opens the door for rule by men rather than the rule of law. Biden is far more dictatorial than Trump. Lula is much more comfortable with power than Bolsonaro. The rules are no longer working so you get a challenge from a strong leader. The people in the system responded with the use of dictatorial power not so much to defend the rules but to defend their positions.

On the other hand, it can also be read as a successful defense against Caesarism. This line of reasoning works in the case of the Prigozhin incident. The Russian political system shrugged off this attempt to challenge it without spilling blood. The Pakistani system has done the same, but with the usual chaotic violence that defines the political life of that world. It is hard to know where things go in America and Brazil, so this line of reasoning does not work in those cases.

Of course, there is some chance this event has Kremlin fingerprints on it. The way Putin handled this raises a few red flags, suggesting there was something else happening behind the scenes. There is speculation that Putin let this proceed as a way to subvert critics inside the Kremlin. There is a faction unhappy with the war. These are the rich guys who do business in the West. Then you have the hawks who would like to nuke Kiev.

This weird rebellion forced everyone to rally to the flag and rally to Putin. If we have a spate of Russian billionaires drowning in their bathtubs or jumping off buildings, we can assume they were not enthusiastic enough for Putin in this incident. If Prigozhin settles into quiet retirement or he is rehabilitated in the next year, then we can assume his performance in this drama was something other than what is being presented by him and the Kremlin.

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·         Republican Side (Link) (Link)

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·         No Labels (Link) (Link)

·         Lying Liars Of Science (Link)

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