The Break-Even Dilemma: Why Your Church Has to Replace a Third of Attendance to Stay Even Each Year

On this week’s episode, Thom and Sam discuss why the typical church must replace a third of its congregation every year to maintain the same number of attendees. Most pastors feel this problem, but the Church Answers team has data on the issue.

The dilemma: A typical church will lose a third of its attendance every year. What if you are a church of 100?

• • Death: 1 person

• • Moving: 9 people

• • Transfer: 7 people

• • Frequency: 15 people

Resources

• “The Night Is Normal: A Guide through Spiritual Pain” by Dr. Alicia Britt Chole

• Tyndale House Publishers

• California Baptist University Pre-College Credit

• The One Big Reason Church Attendance Is Declining (and Most Church Leaders Are Unaware) by Thom S. Rainer

• Get your FREE tool! Attendance Growth Projector

• Check out the Church Answers Christian bookstore! Shop curated, trusted resources for Christian life and ministry.

Episode Sponsors:

It’s unnerving, isn’t it? When our faith feels ungrounded, untethered . . . unreal. When our certainty is adrift, as though an undercurrent has pulled us away from shore into the deep, into the darkness.

This is disillusionment.
This is spiritual pain.

This is losing hope.

And if this is you—if you’re in a dark night of the soul—please know that you are not alone. (And you are not as far away from safety as you may feel or fear.) Though faith shines best in full sun, it grows depth in the dark.

The night is not your enemy.
In fact, the night is necessary.

In The Night Is Normal, revered author, speaker, and mentor Dr. Alicia Britt Chole offers a groundbreaking perspective that reveals spiritual disillusionment as an unexpected friend. Within these sacred pages, you’ll explore how:

• • The roots—and fruits—of spiritual pain are actually an invitation to deep love
  • Mistaking emotions for devotion and viewing abundance as proof of obedience create an unsustainable model for Christianity
  • A strong night-faith can lead you into something far more satisfying than understanding and far more powerful than peace

Our reality is broken, but God has not changed. Whether you’re disillusioned with God, yourself, or others, Alicia offers practical and soul-full tools to help you navigate the night and find your way to a livable and love-saturated hope.

Your night will not last forever.

Within it, there is priceless treasure

that’s simply too weighty to be sourced in sunshine.

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