#093 Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Is Here — How Will This Crisis End

Neil Howe, author, historian, economist, and consultant who is best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 93. 

Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society.

A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.

In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement.

Links: 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration

The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734

0:00 Intro

1:21 Generational Theory 

5:00 Generations arrive in patterns 

8:00 These periods of crisis come once in a lifetime

11:20 Writing “The Fourth Turning” in 1997 

13:00 Fourth Turning catalysts 

15:30 Sales of “The Fourth Turning” book accelerated since pandemic 

16:50 The role of Millennials in the Fourth Turning 

20:00 Younger people losing faith in democracy 

21:18 Generational archetypes 

27:43 Millennials as the “Hero” 

33:40 Fourth Turning will likely end in the early 2030s 

39:00 An internal or external conflict? 

44:00 Macroeconomic picture and the Fourth Turning 

49:00 Relationships 

50:28 What keeps Neil up at night? 

53:00 Optimistic about the future