Everything & Everyone Underperforms Eventually

The podcast opens with Paul reading and discussing Ben Carlson’s recent article on the collapse of bonds,“Everything  & Everyone Underperforms Eventually.”   Paul references a table of returns that compares Short, Intermediate and  Long Term Treasures.   Paul also references a table of Fixed Income Returns during years with S&P 500 loss.  The following short article is referenced in a discussion of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Trust's 15 year record of returns ending in 2005.Russel Kinnel Jan 3, 2006 

"Bill Miller has done it again, but it was a close call. Miller's  Legg Mason Value (LMVTX) extended its winning streak against the S&P 500 Index to 15 straight years, with a 2005 return of 5.32%. The S&P 500 returned 4.91% for the year.

Miller's aversion to commodity producers, specifically energy stocks, meant he had an uphill climb in 2005. In addition, duds like Tyco International   and  eBay (EBAY) added to the challenge. However, big bets on  Google (GOOG) and  UnitedHealth Group (UNH) won the day.

Those stocks nicely illustrate Miller's style. He believes that you have to stick your neck out on controversial or at least misunderstood names to beat the market. EBay and Google are bold bets because their multiples are so steep that they need nearly flawless execution to produce good returns for shareholders. Yet, Miller will also buy fallen growth stocks where controversy has frightened off less-secure money managers. Hence, Tyco and UnitedHealth.

While his streak against the S&P 500 is a fun way to keep score of Miller's accomplishments, his goals revolve around long-term success versus the market. The consistency of his record helps to keep investors in, but his 10-year return is more impressive. The fund has gained an annualized 15.19% over that period, which is about 6 percentage points per year better than the index. For more perspective on the streak, read Chris Traulsen's Fund Spy column from November 2005."

The Long Term Investor – Episode 62 – Investing for Higher Returns with Eduardo Repetto  

Rational Reminder – Eduardo Repetto : Deep Dive with Avantis Investors’ CIO – 11/24/2022 

Paul recommends investors listen to the following interviews with Eduardo Repetto, the Chief Investment Officer of Avantis Funds.         Bogleheads on Investing (the one w Rick Ferri)  - Episode 43: Eduardo Repetto on factor investing