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雪球·财经有深度

雪球·财经有深度

Business:Investing

2246.发展风光“新能源”,抛弃核电“旧能源”?

2246.发展风光“新能源”,抛弃核电“旧能源”?

2023-08-30
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欢迎收听雪球和喜马拉雅联合出品的财经有深度雪球国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台聪明的投资者都在这里。听众朋友们大家好我是主播匪石,今天分享的内容叫发展风光“新能源”,抛弃核电“旧能源”?来自疯子l。

雪球上大家在讨论核电值不值得投资和发展,许多人持有否定和怀疑态度。随着福岛核污染水的排放,核电好像一夜间变成了那人人喊打的过街老鼠了,我内心也是感慨良多。这几年国家在大力促进新能源发展,新能源未来确实也有一定的发展空间,在国家能源体系中占有重要的席位,但是核电在未来的能源体系中仍是不可或缺的一环。无奈的是,人都是根据自身认知的局限性作出或对或错的判断,并依靠自身的影响力去散播不知对错的观点。

我们发展新能源,是否意味着核能就成为旧能源,就应该扔进历史的垃圾桶中?

(1)发展核能是我国能源安全的重要战略

首先,我要说的是,积极安全有序发展核电是《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》的重要内容,是我国能源安全的重要战略,我国经过近40年的发展,几代人不懈的努力,实现了由二代向自主三代核电技术的全面跨越,才能在目前跻身世界核电大国行列,并能轻飘飘地说声核能不安全就给放弃了,这无异于自废武功,放弃自身的优势产业。

(2)是否能够避免核安全事故?

其次,全球500个核电站,出事故的有两个,出事概率看上去并不低。首先我不否认核电站事故的危害性,但我们在评估事故率的时候是否也得考虑时间线,1年内发生两次和50年内发生两次,事故的发生率相差了50倍,抛开时间讲概率是不准确的。

另外,过去发生的核事故都是早期并不完善的核电站,我们熟知的福岛核电站也是上世纪60年代的产物,设计时就存在缺陷,并未将“堆芯熔化”风险考虑在内,并且建造在地震带上,出事故风险当然较高。而我国目前建造的核电均是三代核电,在安全性上比福岛核电站是大大提高了。当然,核电事故还是不可能完全避免,就像最优秀的厨师用刀也有伤到手的时候,但是,如果未来核电事故能从过去50年发生两起,过度到100年发生1起,甚至1千、1万年发生1起,那核电事故就不会太令人担心了吧。另外安全事故也并不是核电站专有的,记得21年澳洲全球最大的储能电站刚运营就起火烧了几天,让人不胜唏嘘。

(3)核电站是目前稳定经济的一次性能源,风电+储能成本高于核电成本

再次,从经济账来看,广核已运营的核电站度电成本在0.23-0.25元/千瓦时,我不认为风电+储能成本能够低于核电。补充一句,目前广核广州的计划电价是低于市场电价的。

从目前最可行的抽水储能电站成本来看。现在的120万千瓦装机抽蓄电站,动态总投资约80亿元人民币,单位千瓦投资约6700元。而且,抽水蓄能电站工程建设条件个体差异明显,单位千瓦静态投资与工程建设条件和装机规模密切相关。适合的、离负荷中心近的抽储电站先建,后面建造的抽储电站成本可能上升。那抽水储能电站度电成本能达到0.25元/千瓦时吗?

而风电通过上大机组,降低度电成本也是有极限的,而且跟前几年相比,我们新开发的风电场的风资源禀赋下降了很多。未来新建风电度电成本上升我是一点都不奇怪的。所以,风电+储能成本低于核电成本,我们想想就好了。

(4)交流电网的性质,决定了新能源发电上限。

从可行性上分析:考虑我国交流电网性质,电网保持系统惯量和无功功率,即使拥有储能的情况下,新能源极限占比最多30-40%。储能方面:抽水储能,即使按国家规划到2035年建成1.2亿千瓦抽水储能,1年发电小时数大概1000-1500小时,年发电1500亿,占目前发电量1.875%,不解决问题;即使将这个数值增加到5倍,抽水储能电站发出的电也只占总发电量的10%不到。电化学储能,从安全性、经济性考虑,目前根本无法实现大范围的储能,也就不讨论了。

总结

我国要发展新型电力体系,风光是核心,但仍需重视能源多样性的战略意义。考虑新能源的自身特性,未来的新型电力体系配合方式应当如下:

①核电是优先级最高的电源,年均工作7000多个小时,基本满发,可作为电力系统中的“先锋队”。

②风光水电都存在稳定性不足的问题,需要配置储能、特高压等新基建来保驾护航,同时相互之间存在季节性互补的特点,发电占比未来仍会进一步提升。

③火电是我国能源安全的底线,碳达峰之前核心地位无法动摇。



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