EA - Observations on the funding landscape of EA and AI safety by Vilhelm Skoglund

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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Observations on the funding landscape of EA and AI safety, published by Vilhelm Skoglund on October 2, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.Epistemic status: Hot takes for discussion. These observations are a side product of another strategy project, rather than a systematic and rigorous analysis of the funding landscape, and we may be missing important considerations. Observations are also non-exhaustive and mostly come from anecdotal data and EA Forum posts. We haven't vetted the resources that we are citing; instead, we took numerous data points at face value and asked for feedback from >5 people who have more of an inside view than we do (see acknowledgments, but note that these people do not necessarily endorse all claims). We aim to indicate our certainty in the specific claims we are making.Context and summaryWhile researching for another project, we discovered that there have been some significant changes in the EA funding landscape this year. We found these changes interesting and surprising enough that we wanted to share them, to potentially help people update their model of the funding landscape. Note that this is not intended to be a comprehensive overview. Rather, we hope this post triggers a discussion about updates and considerations we might have missed.We first list some observations about funding in the EA community in general. Then, we zoom in on AI safety, as this is a particularly dynamic area at present.Some observations about the general EA funding landscape (more details below):There is a higher number of independent grantmaking bodiesFive new independent grantmaking bodies have started up in 2023 (Meta Charity Funders, Lightspeed Grants, Manifund Regrants, the Nonlinear Network, and the Foresight AI Fund. Out of these, all but Meta Charity Funders are focused on longtermism or AI.EA Funds and Open Philanthropy are aiming to become more independent of each other.Charity Entrepreneurship has set up a foundation program, with a sub-goal of setting up cause-specific funding circles.There is a lot of activity in the effective giving ecosystemMore than 50 effective giving initiatives, e.g., local fundraising websites, are active, with several launched in recent yearsGWWC is providing more coordination in the ecosystem and looking to help new initiatives get off the ground.There are changes in funding flowsThe FTX collapse caused a drastic decrease in (expected) longtermist funding (potentially hundreds of millions of dollars annually).EA Fund's Long-Term Future Fund and Infrastructure Fund report (roughly estimated funding gaps of $450k/month and $550k/month respectively, over the next 6 months.Open Philanthropy seems like they could make productive use of more funding in some causes, but their teams working on AI Safety are capacity-constrained rather than funding-constrained.The Survival and Flourishing Fund has increased their giving in 2023. It's unclear whether this increase will continue into the future.Effective Giving plans to increase their giving in the years to come.Longview Philanthropy expects to increase their giving in the years to come. Their 2023 advising will be >$10 million, and they expect money moved in 2024 to be greater than 2023.GiveWell reports being funding-constrained. and projects constant funding flows until 2025.Charity Entrepreneurship's research team expects that money dedicated to animal advocacy is unlikely to grow and could shrink.There might be more EA funding in the futureManifold prediction markets estimate a 45% chance of a new donor giving ≥$50 million to longtermist or existential risk work before the end of 2024; and an 86% chance of ≥1 new EA billionaire before the end of 2026.Smaller but still significant new donors seem likely, according to some fundraising actors.Some observatio...