The Week in Markets – Aggressive bets on global yields after Fed’s dovish pivot

In this episode, we discuss the dovish pivot by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Mr Jerome Powell, that has pushed US treasury yields sharply lower. The market now prices in 150bps cut as early as March while the Fed median dots plot points only to a 75bps cut. As the market fully discount the Fed’s dovish policy, officials are now trying to dial back expectations of an early cut. Although credit spread is not cheap, investors can still lock in yields before the rate cut in 2024. We have upgraded Emerging Market (EM) to an Overweight backed by positive view on Latin America and Asia two weeks ago. The shift in US rates is positive for EM as the central banks in this region can now focus on growth and protecting employment gains. With Asian credit spread at a six-year low, favorable technicals will continue to support Asia high grade (HG). We expect the net redemption trend in 2023 to persist into 2024. In addition, resilient fundamentals, a stable rating trend and diversification reasons from developed market could lead to flows back to the region. The path to lower US interest rates is not a linear one. We could see some treasury volatility with setback at around 4.25%. Investors can use the opportunity to add quality HG bonds and financials in the US and Asia.

This is also the last The Week in Markets episode till Jan next year. I wish you a Merry (and blessed) Christmas and happy 2024 and thank you for your continuing support.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research, Asia at Bank Julius Baer.