赖清德当选会如何冲击两岸关系 Impact of William Lai’s win on cross-strait relations

2024年台湾总统选举已经在1月13日落幕。民进党籍的候选人赖清德以四成选票在三角战中胜出。

迎接赖清德的绝非坦途。民进党失去了立法院多数优势，他将是一个弱势总统，领导一个弱势政府，面对来自内外的压力。美国总统拜登在第一时间就直言，美国不支持台独。南太平洋岛国瑙鲁也在两天内宣布与台湾断交，与中国大陆建交。

在这次选举前，北京已经将赖清德定性为台独顽固份子，并且警告如果赖清德当选，两岸将风高浪急。这次选举后，台海两岸的关系会出现怎样的新局？陆美台三方互动又会怎样影响台湾的发展以及亚太和平？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和淡江大学荣誉教授、亚太和平研究基金会及遠景基金会首席顾问赵春山详细解析。

延伸阅读：

• 分析：新总统520就职前北京将加大对台军事与经济施压
• 于泽远：赖清德上台将引发台海战争？

The presidential candidate of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), William Lai Ching-te, secured victory in the election on Jan 13, winning 40.1 percent of the vote in a three-way race. 

Challenges loom for the newly elected leader. With the DPP losing its majority in the legislature, Mr Lai will face difficulties passing policies or setting the agenda. Shortly after the election, US President Joe Biden emphasised that the United States does not support Taiwan’s independence. Additionally, one of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies, the Pacific Islands nation of Nauru, announced it was breaking ties with the island in favour of China, just days after the election.

In the lead-up to the election, China repeatedly labelled Mr Lai as a dangerous separatist, warning that a win for the independence-leaning DPP’s candidate would pose a danger to relations. How will the outcome of Taiwan’s election impact cross-strait relations? How will the interactions among Mainland China, Taiwan and the US influence peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region?        

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yong Hong and Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of China Studies Honorary Professor Chao Chun-Shan discuss Lai’s win and its impact on cross-straits relations.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

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