Gold: Chinese Floors and American Ceilings

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com

Housekeeping: Good Morning. Transcript tabbed.

*** Special Gold analysis this weekend***

Contents

* Yesterday’s Activity

* Today’s Prices

* Today’s Data

* Markets/Metals Commentary

* Attached- Miners, MUFG Analysis, Trump part2

Markets Covered:

Metals, Energy, Crypto, Bonds, Stocks

Yesterday’s Activity: GDP insane beat

* Commodities- inline with stocks.. but oil outperformed

* US equities- US equities rallied on Thursday after data showed better than expected Q4 economic growth. Energy (+2.23%) and communication services (+1.83%) outperformed the broader market

* Bonds- weaker

* DX-mixed but stronger

h/t DataTrek

Quick Take:

Hard read as PCE square ups are dominating market moves. Seems like if you are bullish stocks you should be buying oil. If you are bullish Gold you should be buying silver. And if you are bullish silver, you should be buying copper for less risk. CTAs are dominating Copper and Oil flows now.

Week’s Data:

Earnings, LEI, PMI, PCE, and GDP

* MONDAY, JAN. 22 10:00 am LEI

* TUESDAY, JAN. 23 None scheduled

* WEDNESDAY, JAN. 24 9:45 am PMI

* THURSDAY, JAN. 25 8:30 am Q4 GDP

* FRIDAY, JAN. 26 8:30 PCE

Total Calendar

JPM’s Feroli sees PCE to print 0.2% vs. 0.2% survey vs. -0.1% prior and core PCE to print 0.22%vs. 0.2% survey vs. 0.1% prior, largely in line with expectations.

After the strong GDP beat yesterday, a in-line or lighter-than-expect PCE could supports the goldilocks scenario. On earnings, eyes on AXP for consumer read-through.

News:

NOTABLE HEADLINES

* US is pausing the pending decisions of new LNG export projects in order to review economic and environmental impacts; Pause comes with exceptions for unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies.

* Tesla got hammered

GEOPOLITICS

* Israeli war council discussed a possible exchange deal with Hamas, according to Sky News Arabia.

* Hamas said if the ICJ issues a ruling for a ceasefire, Hamas will abide by it if Israel reciprocates, while Hamas will release all Israeli hostages in Gaza if Israel releases all Palestinian prisoners.

* American weapons arrived in Israel including dozens of F-35 and F-15 fighters and Apache helicopters, according to Al Jazeera.

* Russian President Putin is reportedly to signal to the US that he's open to talks on Ukraine and sources added that Moscow is floating ideas on Ukraine security and territory, according to Bloomberg.

* US officials said North Korean leader Kim could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after switching to a policy of open hostility,

some headlines via NewSquawk

Markets/Metals Commentary:

Chart walkthrough

* Gold- floors and caps

* Silver- strong. but fading

* Oil- on its own

* Stocks- unrelenting

* Bonds- weaker

Tomorrow and next week:

* Very Special Gold analysis and write up.

* Commentary on the Bitcoin intrinsic piece- biting my tongue

* True Technical Analysis returns

* Interviews with Tony Nash, Peruvian Bull and Jordan at The Daily Gold

Attached. JPM’s morning Alpha team prep