The Wire - January 26, 2024

//The Wire//2230Z January 26, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TEXAS CONTINUES REINFORCING BORDER. OIL TANKER STRUCK IN GULF OF ADEN.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria intensify overnight. AC: In addition to the impacts of the war in Gaza, these attacks are probably in response to Pentagon statements hinting at drawing down forces in Iraq. From Saigon to Kabul, any time a military withdrawal is implied, adversarial forces will seek to capitalize on that perceived weakness to make territorial gains.

Red Sea/HOA: This afternoon, Houthi forces conducted a successful attack on commercial shipping. The M/V MARLIN LUANDA (A British oil tanker) has reportedly suffered catastrophic damage after being struck with multiple cruise missiles in the Gulf of Aden. The vessel is currently on fire.

-HomeFront-

USA: The Biden regime halts all new LNG export licenses. AC: The official reasoning for this is due to climate change, but it is possible this is a political move intended to pressure Texas companies, which provide roughly 25% of all LNG in the US, and transport roughly 50% of the total LNG produced in the US.

TX: So far, a total of 25 Governors have issued statements of support for Texas’s defensive posture at the southern U.S. border. Beyond statements, several Governors have indicated that they will be providing more materiel support to Texas, though the details of this support are ambiguous and possibly related to support already pledged under Operation Lone Star.

The federal government has issued an ultimatum for Texas to comply with the SCOTUS ruling within 24 hours. No further information on this ultimatum at this time.

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Analyst Comments: Despite many statements of support, the concrete actions taken by states in support of Texas are difficult to determine. Many states have already contributed varying military support for the Operation Lone Star mission for years. Consequently, it is challenging to determine if any new actions are being taken, or if any indicators are present that may suggest how seriously politicians are treating this endeavor. For instance, Governor Abbott is not physically located in Texas right now, he is in India. This alone may be an indicator of the seriousness of which a federal response is being considered.

Analyst: S2A

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