MARKETS: The Return of Libertarian Investing

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Housekeeping: Good Morning. Transcript tabbed.

***Title: Japan is literally siphoning off Chinese investment money via its tax plan. Argentina is going full Libertarian. This is the US plan to economically stifle the

Today’s FOMC excpectations

* Rates will be kept unchanged. There will be no rate hike or cut according to market rate futures pricing STIRs

* The statement will be altered to reflect movement towards easing, but nothing aggressive is expected

* Last Dot plot showed 3 potential rate cuts this year

* No updated Dot Plot today Powell’s statementwill be the surprise if there are any

* Its all about March now

Contents

* Current Prices

* Yesterday’s Activity

* Data Due

* News

* Top of Mind title starts 8:03

* Markets/Metals Commentary

* Market Gameplan

* Attached: Charts.

Yesterday’s Activity:

* Commodities- buying in gold on dips, and selling in rallies… caps and floors going into FOMC

* US equities- started strong, finished weak

* Bonds- Up

* DX- flat

* Crypto- started very strong, finished very weak

Data Due:

US JOLTs & Earnings from GOOG & MSFT due

* MONDAY, JAN .29 QRA

* TUESDAY, JAN. 30 9:00 am S&P Case-Shiller home price 10:00 am Consumer confidence

* WEDNESDAY, JAN. 31 Day 2 QRA, 2:00 pm Fed interest-rate decision

* THURSDAY, FEB. 1 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Jan.

* FRIDAY, FEB. 2 8:30 am NFP, Unemployment, Wages

Total Calendar

News:

NOTABLE HEADLINES

* Google and MSFT reported earnings with mixed results. Stocks took a hit overnight

* A Delaware judge voided the USD 56bln pay package of Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, according to CNBC. Shares fell 2.6% aftermarket.

Today’s Most Popular News Stories

GEOPOLITICS

* Iran's envoy to the UN said any attack on Iran, its interests or its nationals outside of its borders will be met with a definitive response, according to IRNA.

* US military said it shot down an anti-ship cruise missile fired by Yemen Houthis into the Red Sea, according to Reuters.

* Houthis say they fired missiles at US warship Greifley, and say they will target US, UK warships in 'self-defence', according to Al Arabiya

some headlines via NewSquawk

Top of Mind:

LIBERTARIAN ATTACK ON BRICS

* Milei is economically Libertarian

* Bank coverage of Argentina economics has upticked markedly… that’s bullish for investment there. Initiating coverage means buy it

Japan Equity Strategy:

From Morgan Stanley:

TOPIX Rising at Fastest Pace in 30 Years; Factor Analysis Suggests Overseas Investors Are a Key Driver. The positive performance of the Expected Dividend Yield factor could have been driven in part by expectations for Japan’s new “NISA” scheme (a tax-free stock investment program for individuals).

YTD the TOPIX has been rising rapidly, advancing at its fastest pace in 30 years and rebounding to new highs, led largely by P/E rather than earnings. Our Japan Equity Strategists’ analysis of factor returns shows sharply positive returns for the Market Cap factor: They note that large-caps generally have been favored during past periods when overseas investors were large net buyers of Japanese stocks, and they believe that this holds true currently.

(charts and further analysis in the Founders post later today)

Market Gameplan (Charts):

* Gold

* Silver

* Oil

* Stocks

* BTC/ETH

* Bonds

Attached: