Revisiting Ricardo: The Rise and Fall of Ricardian Equivalence

This episode of Economics Explored explores the theory of Ricardian equivalence, a proposition that fiscal policy measures like tax cuts or stimulus payments may not effectively boost the economy if households anticipate higher future taxes to pay off government debt. Host Gene Tunny explains the concept originating from David Ricardo and popularized by Robert Barro, involving ultra-rational consumer optimization over infinite time horizons. While an elegant theoretical model, Ricardian equivalence relies on unrealistic assumptions and fails empirical tests. Evidence shows households do increase spending after rebates or transfers, although not always by as much as policy makers would like. Ultimately, while the merits of discretionary fiscal policy are debatable, Ricardian equivalence is too extreme a hypothesis. Households do not behave as ultra-rational dynamic optimizing models predict.

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

Takeaways

Five takeaways from this episode are:

1. Ricardian equivalence is an elegant theoretical model but relies on unrealistic assumptions about rational consumer behavior.

2. Empirical evidence overwhelmingly finds that households do increase spending after tax rebates or fiscal stimulus, contrary to Ricardian equivalence predictions.

3. Related concepts like Friedman's permanent income hypothesis are more nuanced but also face limitations in fully explaining consumer decisions.

4. While fiscal policy faces challenges, Ricardian equivalence is not a compelling argument against its effectiveness due to failures of the underlying theory.

5. Examining economic models against real-world evidence is important for evaluating their validity and implications for policy.

Timestamps

• Introduction. (0:00)
• David Ricardo's economic theories and their relevance today. (5:30)
• Ricardian equivalence in macroeconomics. (11:02)
• Consumption function and fiscal policy. (17:48)
• Rational economic models and their implications. (23:18)
• Ricardian equivalence theory and its limitations. (26:41)
• Ricardian equivalence theory and its empirical support. (33:59)
• Consumer spending after receiving tax rebates. (39:10)
• Ricardian equivalence in economics. (43:55)

Links

Previous episode in which Ricardian Equivalence was mentioned:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/01/11/the-limits-of-fiscal-policy-insights-from-tony-makin-alex-robson-others-ep222/

Robert Barro’s 1974 article “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/course131/Barro74JPE.pdf

James M. Buchanan on “Barro on the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem”

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260436

Geoffrey Brennan and James M. Buchanan on “The Logic of the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem”

https://www.jstor.org/stable/40911555

John J. Seater on “Ricardian Equivalence”

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2728152

T. D. Stanley on “New Wine in Old Bottles: A Meta-Analysis of Ricardian Equivalence”

https://www.jstor.org/stable/1060788

Economist 2008 column “Ricardian equivalence is dead”

https://www.economist.com/free-exchange/2008/05/19/ricardian-equivalence-is-dead

Anrdrew Leigh’s paper “How Much Did the 2009 Australian Fiscal Stimulus Boost Demand? Evidence from Household-Reported Spending Effects”

http://andrewleigh.org/pdf/FiscalStimulus.pdf

Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel B. Slemrod’s study “Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?”

https://www.nber.org/papers/w14753

Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod’s analysis “Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?” 

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.4.3.216

Ikuo Saito’s paper “Fading Ricardian Equivalence in Ageing Japan”

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Fading-Ricardian-Equivalence-in-Ageing-Japan-44302

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.