Fatal Optimism

The Alligator and the Mockingbird

Few people are as tiresome as the person who lives life in a minor key. Pessimistic people remind me of Eeyore the donkey:

“I don’t think we can do it.”

“This idea will never work.”

“It’s probably going to rain.”

On the other hand, few people are as terrifying as Eeyore’s opposite.

Have you ever known a person with Fatal Optimism?

“If we just think happy thoughts, everything will turn out okay.”

“I am a child of the Universe. I have a right to be here.”

“I’m a winner. I can do it. I’m special.”

I’m a proponent of boldness. But I also believe you should count the cost and be willing to pay the price. The comedians at Despair.com spoke the truth when they said, “FAILURE: Because sometimes your very best just isn’t good enough.”

In her essay, How Positive Thinking Wrecked the Economy, Barbara Ehrenreich writes,

“Besides greed, another habit of mind should get its share of the blame: the delusional optimism of mainstream, all-American, positive thinking.” Barbara writes, “Everyone knows that you won't get a job paying more than $15 an hour unless you're a ‘positive person’ — doubt-free, uncritical, and smiling — and no one becomes a CEO by issuing warnings of possible disaster.”

How do we become infected with Fatal Optimism? Malcolm Gladwell says it happens slowly.

“As novices, we don’t trust our judgment. Then we have some success, and begin to feel a little surer of ourselves. Finally, we get to the top of our game and succumb to the trap of thinking that there’s nothing we can’t master. As we get older and more experienced, we overestimate the accuracy of our judgments, especially when the task before us is difficult and when we’re involved with something of great personal importance.”

In the early part of WWI,

the British thought:

1. The Turks would lose at Gallipoli,

2. Belgium would be an obstacle to Germany’s advance and

3. Russia was sure to crush the Germans in the east.

The French believed their army would be at the Rhine within six weeks of the start of the war. Meanwhile the Germans were predicting the same amount of time would take the German army to the outskirts of Paris.

Each of these predictions was horribly, tragically wrong.

Do you remember all the people who claimed we would be “out of Iraq” within 30 days of the invasion? I knew it was politically dangerous and that it would cost me friends, clients and money, but I responded by voicing my concern that we were launching the next Viet Nam. More than a few people snorted and said to me, “You’re a fool if you think we’re going to fight this war with men. This will be a pushbutton war.” And then they accused me of “not supporting our troops.” That was six and a half years ago. I wonder how many of those troops wish I had shouted louder, longer, sooner?

But today’s memo isn’t about politics, it’s about business. I included the Iraqi War memory because, other than the recent mortgage meltdown, I couldn’t think of a more stinging example of overconfidence than our invasion of Iraq. (Yes, I’m fully aware this comment will anger some people. But when a man volunteers to wear the handcuffs of public opinion, his words become flaccid and his advice becomes suspect. I don’t want to be that man.)

In 2004, Oxford University Press published a book by psychologist Mark Fenton-O’Creevy. Too few people read it. That prophetic book was the result of a 3-year study O’Creevy conducted involving 118 managers and traders at four leading investment banks.

One of O’Creevy’s tests involved a computer program that mimicked the ups and downs of the stock market. As the line moved across the screen, the traders were asked to press a series of buttons, which, they were told, might or might not affect the course of the line. At the end of each session, the traders were asked to rate their effectiveness in moving the line upward. Keep in mind the buttons had no effect whatsoever on the line. But each of the stock traders was convinced he had figured out exactly which combinations of buttons made the line go up. (Psychologists call this “magical thinking“ and it's often associated with schizophrenia.)

Overconfidence is the rocket fuel of incredibly dumb decisions.

As my older and wiser friend Loren Lewis used to say when I was 17, “Don’t let your alligator mouth overload your mockingbird ass.”

Be bold, but count the cost.

Never assume you can't lose.

And remember:

Failure is a temporary condition.

So don't let it scare you.

Roy H. Williams