The Week in Markets - The end of deflation in Japan

Employment data suggests slower wage inflation and overall inflation ahead, and therefore lower interest rates. The S&P is up 26% since its interim low in October 2023, the same return as all of 2021, but in a third the time. A change pf key personnel at the US State Department may signify a change in policy. A cease-fire in Ukraine would be a real positive for Europe, and would also mean lower energy prices, a win for President Biden. Government and central bank sources in Japan are leaking that a policy change is afoot. If union-management wage negotiations for this year show a rise equivalent or more than last year’s, it would be the excuse the Bank of Japan needs to end quantitative easing, and raise interest rates. Even if the yen goes up 5% vs. dollar over the next 12 months (which is our forecast), it will still be one of the most competitive currencies in the world.

 

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.