#153 Amy Nixon On Inflation Running Hot And Pivoting On The Deflationary Recession Call

Amy Nixon, a housing and economic analyst, makes her first podcast appearance in six months after making a pivot on her deflationary recession call. 

In his episode, Amy discusses the current macroeconomic environment and the challenges it presents. She highlights the combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy as a significant factor in the economy. 

Amy shares her experience of adapting her forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions. 

She also discusses the state of the housing market, the impact of institutional buyers, and the future of real estate agents. Amy addresses the concerns of millennials in the housing market and offers insights into owning a home as an investment. 

Links: 

https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW

Takeaways

• The combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy is a significant factor in the current macroeconomic environment.
• Adapting forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions is crucial for accurate analysis.
• The housing market is facing challenges due to tight credit, low transaction volume, and high liquidity.
• Owning a home as an investment can be beneficial for wealth building, especially for individuals without much investment knowledge.
• The future of the economy is influenced by factors such as inflation, political decisions, and market dynamics.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and macro view of the economy

01:18 Tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy

03:15 The importance of admitting mistakes and analyzing new data

04:12 Adapting forecasts and expectations for 2023 and 2024

04:23 The impact of changing analysis on housing market

09:46 The state of the housing sector

12:38 The impact of institutional buyers on the housing market

21:15 The housing market and Millennials

25:21 Owning a home as an investment

26:03 The Airbnb bust thesis

32:06 Inflation and the future of the economy