EA - Sharing the AI Windfall: A Strategic Approach to International Benefit-Sharing by michel

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Sharing the AI Windfall: A Strategic Approach to International Benefit-Sharing, published by michel on August 17, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
Summary
If AI progress continues on its current trajectory, the developers of advanced AI systems - and the governments who house those developers - will accrue tremendous wealth and technological power.
In this post, I consider how and why US government[1] may want to internationally share some benefits accrued from advanced AI - like financial benefits or monitored access to private cutting-edge AI models. Building on prior work that discusses international benefit-sharing primarily from a global welfare or equality lens, I examine how strategic benefit-sharing could unlock international agreements that help all agreeing states and bolster global security.
Two "use cases" for strategic benefit-sharing in international AI governance:
1. Incentivizing states to join a coalition on safe AI development
2. Securing the US' lead in advanced AI development to allow for more safety work
I also highlight an important, albeit fuzzy, distinction between benefit-sharing and power-sharing:
Benefit-sharing: Sharing AI-derived benefits that don't significantly alter power dynamics between the recipient and the provider.
Power-sharing: Sharing AI-derived benefits that significantly empower the recipient actor, thereby changing the relative power between the provider and recipient.
I identify four main clusters of benefits, but these categories overlap and some benefits don't fit neatly into any category: Financial and resource-based benefits; Frontier AI benefits; National security benefits; and 'Seats at the table'.
I conclude with two key considerations with respect to benefit-sharing:
Credibility will be a key challenge for benefit-sharing and power-sharing agreements (See more)
Benefit sharing strategies should account for potential risks. (See more)
Introduction
Advanced AI systems could empower their developers - and the governments who supervise those developers - with enormous benefits. For example, advanced AI systems[2] could give rise to tremendous wealth, breakthrough medical technologies, and decisive national security benefits.
This post examines how these benefits could be shared internationally. In particular, I examine how and why the US government (henceforth USG) may want to strategically share some of the benefits accrued from advanced AI to further their own interest, other states interests, and ultimately bring about a safer world.
Past work[3] on international benefit-sharing has primarily focused on sharing benefits to address wide-spread job-displacement and promote welfare and equality globally. I support such altruistic benefit-sharing to remedy the uptick in global power- and income-inequality that AI could drive. But I want to expand discussions of international benefit-sharing to include sharing benefits as a tool for positive-sum trades.
By offering AI-derived benefits - such as economic aid, monitored frontier AI model access, or security assurances[4] - the USG could enable commitments that are in the interest of all parties at the table and promote global security. For example, the US could provide allied states with monitored access to private, cutting-edge frontier AI models. In exchange, allied states could take steps domestically to prevent the proliferation of weaponized AI systems.
(I discuss other ideas on how benefit-sharing could be used in international AI governance below).
There is precedent for US-led strategic benefit-sharing. Consider the Marshall Plan. Post-WW2, the USG helped Western Europe rapidly recover by providing benefits like financial aid and modern technologies, which in turn strengthened the US' key strategic alliances, created mutually-beneficial markets for US goods and...