105: Should you have children in light of climate change?—w/ Darrell Bricker of Empty Planet

Everybody knows that the global population is out of control. And everybody is wrong, our guest argues. In fact, Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson contend that the UN model predicting 11.2B people by the end of the century is deeply flawed. According to their research, the human population is likely to reach only 8.5B by midcentury and then begin to decline.

 

Darrell Bricker is the coauthor of Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline, a book exploring how a shrinking population might reshape the social, political, environmental and economic landscape.  On this episode of the Reversing Climate Change, Darrell joins Alexsandra and Ross to discuss how his understanding of population trends differs from conventional wisdom and explain why the UN numbers around global fertility rates are wrong.  

 

Darrell shares the reasons why women are making the decision to have fewer children, exploring the impact urbanization, education, healthcare delivery and even access to telenovelas (yes, Spanish-language soap operas!) have had on birthrate. He also discusses the potential consequences of global population decline, including its effect on the natural environment and what it means for our current economic model. Listen in for Darrell’s insight on why government policies to promote childbirth don’t seem to work and learn what to consider in making your own decision to have children—or not.

 

Key Takeaways

 

[0:39] How Darrell’s understanding of population trends differs from conventional wisdom

UN estimates suggest global population out of control (11.2B by end of century) More credible numbers = 8.5B by mid-century with decline after 2050

 

[2:56] Why the UN numbers are wrong

# of children born declining more rapidly than model suggests Below UN natural state of 2.1 in many countries

 

[4:27] Why women are making the decision to have fewer children

Growing urbanization (free labor vs. mouths to feed) Women exposed to other choices, e.g.: work, education

 

[6:08] The general pros and cons of a declining birthrate

Less resource depletion Challenges economic model (consumerism drives growth)

 

[8:29] Wolfgang Lutz’s work around the decline in population

Education of women leads to lower fertility rates More control over bodies, choose to have fewer children

 

[12:18] The impact of telenovelas on the birthrate in Brazil

TV in favelas exposed women to strong female characters Women decide to stop having children sooner

 

[14:29] Other factors that influenced the birthrate in Brazil

Massive urbanization Delivery of healthcare (availability of sterilization)

 

[16:45] The main criticism of Empty Planet

Suggest open border to offset lack of fertility Accused of advocating political philosophy

 

[18:17] The generational conflicts associated with population decline 

Forced to rethink what we mean by retirement and work Consider way develop/distribute wealth (cities vs. rural areas)

 

[22:28] The potential consequences of global population decline

Positive improvement in natural environment Energy poverty in some countries Rethink capitalism, global security

 

[24:35] Darrell’s insight on making the decision to have children

Effect on overall climate very minimal (virtually nothing) Population continues to grow because people live longer Don’t get wrapped up in externalities, look at own family

 

[32:26] How having children later in life impacts fertility rates

Boomers had first kid in early 20’s, millennials at 33 Start family later in life = less time and fewer kids

 

[38:07] Government policies to promote childbirth

Make it easier to take time off work, make work flexible Reduce financial penalty (e.g.: Hungary income tax)

 

[41:18] The complex decision women are facing all over the world

Empower selves through education, less time to consider having family Financial considerations around becoming single parent vs. flying solo

 

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Resources

 

Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson

2019 UN World Population Prospects

Wolfgang Lutz on the ‘Education Effect’

Brazil’s Fertility Decline

The Population Bomb by Paul R. Ehrlich

Hungary’s Income Tax Breaks for Families