2020’s ”Knife Edge” Election: An Analysis (And What It May Mean for 2022 & 2024) w/ Thomas Ferguson

On this edition of Parallax Views, Thomas Ferguson, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at University of Massachusetts Boston and author of The Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition, returns to Parallax Views to discuss the latest working paper he's co-authored (with Paul Jorgensen and Jie Chen) for the Institute for New Economic Thinking entitled "The Knife Edge Election of 2020: American Politics Between Washington, Kabul, and Weimar". Using statistical methodology, Ferguson and his co-authors delve into the potential reasons for Biden's win, Trump's loss, and the reason the race was so tight. Ferugson discusses how this analysis is important in lieu of the coming midterms and the 2024 election, which could prove perilous for the Democratic Party. In this conversation we delve into the role of pandemic, Black Lives Matter, the Wildcat Strikes, Big Agriculture/Big Farming, and more as these matters related to the election. We also discuss the Virginia governor election that saw the victory of Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin, elites leaving Trump but not the GOP (and banking on "Trump-lite candidates), the Biden administration's handling of the pandemic, Biden and OSHA, the role of money and sectoral factors (different industries and their interests) in elections, the economy and education as a factor in the Virginia governor race, crises facing schools during the pandemics, agriculture as Trump's "ace in the hole" (and an "ace in the hole" for Republicans in previous elections), COVID testing crisis, the lack of unions in farming, Black Lives Matter as working as a slight plus for Democrats in the 2020 Election, addressing the question of whether or not the pandemic hurt Trump and helped Biden, Trump's trade wars with Europe and China, farm politics and the lack of political science examination of it, Trump's 74 million votes and the pouring of money into rural areas, the shadow of economic globalization, 2024 as a potential Biden moment for Biden, corporate Democrats, the Republican sweep of Congress in the 1994 mid-term elections, Nancy Pelosi vs. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez on Congressional stock trading, predictive models, the Dodd-Frank reforms and the INET study on that, the AFL-CIO and FDR's New Deal, and more!

 

"The Knife Edge Election of 2020: American Politics Between Washington, Kabul, and Weimar" by Thomas Ferguson, Paul Jorgensen, and Jie Chen - Institute for New Economic Thinking - November 2021

"How Much Can the U.S. Congress Resist Political Money? A Quantitative Assessment" by Thomas Ferguson, Paul Jorgensen, and Jie Chen - Institute for New Economic Thinking - April 2020

"AOC pushed back on Nancy Pelosi's stance against banning congressional stock-trading: 'We write major policy and have access to sensitive information'" by Bryan Metzger - Business Insider - December 18, 2021

"The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election" by by Molly Ball - TIME - February 4th, 2021

"How Big Business Got Woke and Dumped Trump" by Molly Ball - TIME - November 1, 2021

"Top Trump Fundraiser Boasted of Raising $3 Million to Support Jan. 6 “Save America” Rally" by Joaquin Sapien and Joshua Kaplan - October 18, 2021

Mike Elk's Payday Report - Covering Labor in News Deserts

Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Politics (Full Documentary)