The Jun PMI manufacturing came in at 53 vs 56.1 the month prior. Extended the correctly forecast downtrend this year that signaled a slower economy.
The business cycle model shows a time frame for an end of economy and stock market rout.
I show the long-term performance of the PMI as indicator of the US economy with a business cycle perspective.
Are we in a recession? If not will we be so? And what of the business cycle this decade?
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