Commodities Focus: Macro stress confounds fundamentals as ag weather risks turn to threats

Tracey Allen and Ruhani Aggarwal discuss the outlook for agri markets after the collapse in prices in June and July. The confluence of macro headwinds from decadal highs in the US dollar, rising recessionary risks and fears of a return to COVID lockdowns in China, to sharp losses across crude oil markets have continued to override ags markets fundamentals and associated weather-related production threats this week. Material progress towards mobilizing the grain and oilseeds stored at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports appears to have been made during discussions between military delegations from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations on Wednesday in Istanbul. This apparent agreement is not an indication of a normalization in Ukrainian export flows but certainly a step in the right direction for global food supplies.

 

Speakers

Tracey Allen, Head of Agriculture Research, J.P. Morgan

Ruhani Aggarwal, Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan

 

This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022.

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