Global Commodities: Chinese jet fuel demand key to global oil demand growth

Natasha Kaneva discusses why Chinese jet fuel demand is so important for global oil balances this year. In 2023, we project jet fuel to contribute 60% to global oil demand growth, with China accounting for 20% of that. Dragged down by a tepid recovery in international travel, China’s daily flights have stabilized at 84% of 2019 levels, 10%-pts below our initial estimates. We trim 1Q23 numbers but opt to keep our China jet fuel demand unchanged for 2Q23 and beyond. The most popular outbound destinations have lifted COVID testing requirements starting from March 11 and bookings for overseas travel have skyrocketed to Italy (59% vs 2019), Korea (29%), Australia (42%), and ASEAN (34%), suggesting outbound flights should pick-up significantly in the second half of March. 

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 10 March 2023.

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