This week’s news of tightening US bank lending standards and a sharp rise in unemployment insurance claims fuels worries about an impending recession. However, beneath the surface, there are reasons to fade the downsides somewhat. More importantly, April activity data are shaping up for a solid bounce after softness late last quarter—echoing the global survey data and US payrolls report already in hand. While we still see recession taking hold eventually, we also maintain our call that its not going to come in the next few months.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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