Global Data Pod: Research Rap: A house divided can stand if built on a US foundation

In this episode of the Global Data Pod: Research Rap, Joe Lupton and Bruce Kasman discuss a recently released research note assessing the global spillover effects from this year’s positive (US) and negative (Euro area and China) growth shocks.

We quantify the historical impact of regional shocks filtered through the lens of GDP, our nowcasters (NRI), and our Forecast Revision Indexes (FRI). The results confirm that GDP shocks emanating from Europe and China have less of an impact on the global economy overall than those from the US. This owes in part to the powerful spillover of US to global financial conditions. As financial conditions are currently reinforcing the message that US shocks dominate, we expect the recently upward revised and more resilient US economy to set the tone for the global economy even as Western Europe and China are expected to continue to deliver sub-par growth.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 8 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483519-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.