Equity Strategy - Q3 preview: bottom-up to start looking more challenging; OW bond proxies and commodities into year end

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy

Big picture, we argued last Monday that bond yields are likely peaking. Given that the sharp bond selloff was a problem for equities over the past months, any turn lower in yields is initially interpreted as a positive by the market. The question is how long will that supportive effect last for, as the next market phase could be “bad will be seen as bad”, especially if earnings momentum starts to deteriorate. For Q3 reporting season, the consensus expectations are at +4% and +3% yoy EPS growth ex Energy, for US and Eurozone, respectively. These projections appear undemanding at face value, but, in contrast to 1H, when most activity metrics were on an improving trend, the PMI momentum softened during Q3. Weaker volumes, together with softer pricing, at the time of elevated input costs such as wages and rates could lead to margin squeeze. EPS revisions appear to be weakening again in the US and Eurozone, we think this downtrend could continue. At a sector level, we expect better results for commodity sectors – Mining and Energy. We see continued risks to Consumer cyclicals, such as Retail, Luxury, Autos, but also to Chemicals and Semis. With respect to Banks, they are still likely to have good results in Q3, but the next trade is likely to be to go UW Banks, probably after Q3 results for the sector are out of the way. In terms of positioning, we favour the barbell of bond proxies and commodities into year end. The likely rollover in bond yields, along with the potentially more challenging earnings results, favour the low beta exposure, sectors such as Utilities, Staples, Healthcare and Real Estate, to catch up after a poor 1H. Regionally, we reiterate our tactical call that China equities, and exposure such as Mining, should be trading better in the short term, post significant weakness earlier in the year, and we keep OW Energy.

This podcast was recorded on 15 October 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4534192-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.