This Time the Biden Bear Is Really Here

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Hi. Peter Navarro here with this week’s market rap for the week ending October 27, 2023, and recall now that since mid-July, I’ve been warning that cash is king in a stock market in which I clearly feared a bearish trend might develop.

I made this call at the time despite abundant evidence to the contrary as the market was exerting bullish tendencies.  Yet, I saw a long list of problems piling up that I believed would soon turn any bullish sentiment into a bear market rout.

For example, here’s a quote from my July 14th, 2023, substack which maintained a recommendation of cash over equities despite what was a very bullish week.  Here’s what I wrote:

“It was indeed a very good week for the bulls.  From a purely technical trading perspective, the market trend is clearly up; and on this technical signal alone, US markets, along with markets around the world, are likely to see more green than red days, at least for a while. That said, I remain wary and see lower risk generating income in short term treasuries than rolling the stock dice.”

Then, on August 12, 2023, I wrote as the market trend was indeed beginning to turn:

My bottom line is that cash remains king – with “cash” now earning a nice 5% in, for example, six-month T-bills.  If, however, you want to walk a little bit on the wild side – not offering advice here – a good speculation (not bet) might be SPXU, a 3X leveraged exchange trade fund that shorts the S&P 500.  The Biden bear is coming; it’s only a matter of time.

In the category of “I hate it sometimes when I’m right as I don’t want good American citizens to lose their shirts in the stock market, it would turn out July 31 would mark the abrupt end of the short-term Biden bull.  As this 12-month chart below indicates, the S&P 500 peaked on July 31, 2023 at almost 4,600.