- Dairy
- Herd will eventually stabilize and start to grow again
- We will begin 2024 with 50,000 fewer heifers than we did in 2023
- Milk output will begin to grow again by spring flush
- Buyers should be defensive and buy into weakness to extend coverage
- Cocoa
- Fundamentals are only now starting to catch up to the price move we have already seen
- Lag in arrivals and projected deficit is growing as we near the mid-point of the main-crop
- More price increases by large branded companies are expected as cocoa continues to trade at 47-year highs
- High prices will cause demand destruction manifest in retail sales figures
- Economy & energy
- First rate reduction at June FOMC: 100bp total 2024
- Core CPI falls to 3% and holds
- GDP averages closer to 1%, maybe a slight negative quarter mixed in
- S&P makes new record high, but returns come back down to earth in the 6-8% range
- Crude oil breaks the $68 soft floor and averages $65 despite an EIA forecast of $78
- Sugar
- # 11 sugar will trade up to mid-20s before coming back to current levels
- # 16 market will remain just below High Tier imports
- 2025 sugar negotiations will mirror 2024 negotiations
- Corn
- Acreage may lose to soybeans
- Ethanol demand stalls
- Exports robust
- Ending stocks remain over 2.0 billion bushels
- Wheat
- U.S. crop to reach 2 billion bushels next year, despite fewer planted acres
- Global stocks recover: 267 to 270 MMT
- La Niña watch in late 2024
- Edible oils
- Soybean oil use for biofuel to reach or surpass 13.4 billion lbs
- Despite this, soybean oil futures may finally meet their “new normal”: listen for that number!
- McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!
- Mark your calendars, registration opens in January!
- Happy New Year!
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
More Episodes
Live from ABLC Next 2022!
2022-10-28
108
2022-10-28
108
Wheat: Where does it go from here?
2022-10-21
124
2022-10-21
124
October WASDE: As scary as the Grain Stocks report?
2022-10-12
126
2022-10-12
126
Cocoa & the farmgate price
2022-10-07
113
2022-10-07
113
September 2022 Grain Stocks report: The gut punch edition
2022-09-30
136
2022-09-30
136
Weather, wheat, & an economic overview
2022-09-23
122
2022-09-23
122
Coaching clients through corn sweetener negotiation
2022-09-16
143
2022-09-16
143
September WASDE: It’s a shocker!
2022-09-12
150
2022-09-12
150
Pug asks, “What’s driving the commodity markets?”
2022-09-09
124
2022-09-09
124
Sugar market landscape heading into September WASDE
2022-09-02
137
2022-09-02
137
The dairy market: Is the glass half full or half empty?
2022-08-26
110
2022-08-26
110
What’s next for the sugar market?
2022-08-19
127
2022-08-19
127
August WASDE: King-sized wrap up
2022-08-12
136
2022-08-12
136
Recapping the 37th ASA International Sweetener Symposium
2022-08-05
141
2022-08-05
141
Uh oh… The soy complex is at it again!
2022-07-29
125
2022-07-29
125
What sparked the recent sell-off in commodity markets?
2022-07-22
150
2022-07-22
150
Plant proteins & pork with our friends from Urner Barry
2022-07-15
116
2022-07-15
116
July WASDE hot off the grill!
2022-07-12
140
2022-07-12
140
Opportunity finally knocks on the natural gas markets
2022-07-08
126
2022-07-08
126
Get this podcast on your
phone, FREE
