January 20, 2024 | Banks & the Economy, Office Space, Consumer Spending and Taxes when Selling a Home

Banks and the Economy
Each quarter we get very excited to see what the major banks have to say about the consumer and the economy. Last Friday, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup all reported earnings. The overall comments were the consumer is still strong. The CEO of Wells Fargo said average deposit balances per customer remain above 2019 levels and loans to businesses were up in the quarter. There were some write-offs on commercial office buildings with Bank of America charging off the most at $100 million. In total the four banks charged off $6.6 billion of all loans which was double what it was one year ago. Profits for the four banks in the fourth quarter were up 11% from one year ago coming in at $104 billion. JP Morgan Chase accounted for roughly half of that profit with $50 billion in the quarter. These profits are pretty amazing because in addition to the $6.6 billion charge off for loans, they also had to set aside $9 billion to pay a special Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) fee which was related to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. So, I’m happy with the report and do continue to believe 2024 will be a good year for the economy and the consumer, but as always, we will receive our bumps and bruises as the year progresses.

Office Space
It was reported that 19.6% of office space in major US cities was sitting empty in the fourth quarter of 2023. That is the highest number on record which goes back to 1979. The problem is twofold. First, there are still some people working exclusively from home, which I still say as time passes more people will be coming into the office as businesses need to increase their profits and productivity. Second, overbuilding occurred for years with commercial buildings. It was noted that the bulk of the vacant space in buildings were built from the 1950s through the 1980s. If you’re going to get an employee to come back to the office, they don’t want to go back to some rundown building. They are asking for beautiful buildings with coffee bars, gyms, and Pickleball courts. There are some good opportunities for investments in class A commercial buildings that are in booming areas, but investors have to be wary that they are not investing in lower grade class B or C buildings in run down cities.

Consumer Spending
I think someone forgot to tell consumers to slow down on spending. Retail sales were strong in December as they grew 0.6% for the month, which topped the estimate of 0.4%. Looking compared to last year, December sales were up an impressive 5.6%. Areas of strength included food services and drinking places (+11.1%), non-store retailers (+9.7%), and electronics and appliance stores (+10.7%). Areas that weighed on the report included gas stations (-6.6%), furniture and home furnishing stores (-4.7%), and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-2.3%). While this is good news and shows the consumer is still strong, it is leading to concern around the Fed’s rate cut path. I’m still optimistic the Fed can balance the economy and rate cuts to navigate a soft landing.

 

Financial Planning: Taxes When Selling a Home
A house is considered a capital asset, and when a capital asset is sold for a profit, a capital gain is produced which can result in a tax bill. For homes that have been the primary residence of the seller for at least two years out of the last 5 years, a home sale exclusion applies which reduces the amount of capital gain by up to $500k for a married couple or $250k for a single person. For example, if a home was purchased for $250k then sold years later for $1,250,000, there would be a capital gain of $1,000,000. This gain may then be reduced by the $500k exclusion, resulting in a taxable capital gain on the remaining $500k. If the home was instead sold for $700k after purchasing for $250k, the gain would only be $450k, which the exclusion would completely cover resulting in no taxes on the sale. If there is a taxable capital gain after the exclusion, it will be taxable at the lower capital gain rate as opposed to ordinary income rates on the federal side. On the state side the gain will be taxed as ordinary income as most states don’t have separate capital gain tax brackets. For married couples with an adjusted gross income of about $125k or less, including any taxable gains from a home sale, the federal capital gain tax rate is 0%. So, if a residence is going to be sold, it would be best to sell during a year with low income such as the first year of retirement so that the 0% tax bracket would absorb some of the gain. Once income goes above $125k, the next capital gain bracket is 15% up to an income level of about $615k at which point the tax rate increases to 20%. It is also important to keep a record of any home improvements or selling costs as these can be deducted against the taxable gain. Due to appreciation in the housing market, it is getting more common for home sales to result in taxes, so be diligent about keeping records and be careful when you sell a home so you don’t pay more taxes than necessary.