Jurrien Timmer's global macro view – April 22, 2024

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, is back on the show today to discuss the current state of the markets and the economic factors affecting them. Jurrien points out that while markets frequently experience drawdowns, it's important to see these movements in context. For example, the S&P 500's recent 6% drop follows a significant rally. He speaks to the role of rising interest rates and their impact on market dynamics, highlighting a shift in the stock-to-bond correlation from negative to positive, which historically indicates less favorable conditions for equities. He also addresses the shift in investor expectations regarding the Fed's policies, noting the resilience of the economy despite high rates and persistent inflation, which suggests that the current monetary policy might be less restrictive than it appears. He also elaborates on the implications of earnings forecasts, particularly for big tech companies, suggesting that these firms are less sensitive to rate fluctuations due to their substantial cash reserves. He also suggests that while the equity market has shown signs of broadening, investors should maintain a long-term perspective despite potential short-term declines.

 

Recorded on April 22nd, 2024.

 

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