Jurrien Timmer's global macro view – May 13, 2024

Between PPI, CPI, and retail sales, a slew of US economic data was released last week, and equities have continued to push higher as investors awaited the reports. But will the equity gains continue? Joining the show today to provide some answers, share how the latest bond market action is affecting his outlook, and much more, is Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer. Jurrien discusses the significance of this new inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index, and its impact on market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy. He discusses the Fed's bias towards easing monetary policy, and also addresses the relationship between rising earnings and market valuations, highlighting the recovery in earnings estimates and its impact on market dynamics. He explains the relationship between price-earnings ratios and earnings growth during different phases of the market cycle. Jurrien also brings up some historical comparisons, drawing parallels between the current market cycle and the soft landings of 1994 and 1966-68, explores the recent performances of commodity markets and international markets, and analyzes the yield curve inversion and its significance. 

 

As per usual Jurrien will be sharing some charts, so please head to @TimmerFidelity on X to follow along.

 

Recorded on May 13th, 2024.

 

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