May 25, 2024 | AI Boom, Bond Allocation, Tariffs on Chinese Goods and Mortgage Payments

AI Boom

You may have missed the AI boom in NVIDIA, but for patient longer-term investors there could be a good investment opportunity in energy going forward. As more companies begin to use AI, the demand for energy will increase. Keep in mind that this is on top of expected growth in the electric vehicle market and if it continues on in future years, cryptocurrency is also a drain on electricity to mine all those silly tokens. To give you an example on the power needed for AI, a ChatGPT request takes roughly 10 times as much power compared to if one did a Google search. Based on some research from Bank of America, they estimate that the current demand for electricity from datacenters is currently one to two percent, but in the next seven years that could increase to eight percent. There will be some great opportunities for the investor who is looking out 3 to 5 years, if they invest in good fundamentally strong companies. The nice thing about many energy companies is they also pay a decent dividend while you wait for the investment to grow. 

Bond Allocation

When we see potential clients come to our firm for a consultation and we see they have a 10% to maybe 30% allocation of bonds, I just scratch my head and wonder what the broker was thinking. Maybe they weren’t. Even the Bond King, Bill Gross, who managed the PIMCO Total Return Fund and who was largely responsible for bringing the investment firm PIMCO from assets under management of $12 million to around $2 trillion has said he now dislikes bonds and is investing money in other areas. He had some of the best returns of bond fund managers, but it came at time of declining interest rates from 1981 to 2020 that is now over. With long term interest rates at current levels, I believe the best return that investors could hope for is probably the coupon rate which on a 10-year treasury will be somewhere around 4.5%. This will not only hurt bonds; I believe it will also lead to disappointing returns in the old asset allocation model of 60% in equities and 40% in bonds over the next five to ten years. So, if your broker or advisor has part of your money in bonds, you may want to ask why. I would say be prepared for the weak answer of something to do with asset allocation or that it has worked in the past. In other words, they are taking the easy way out rather than doing some hard research for your portfolio going forward. 

Tariffs on Chinese Goods

I was happy to see the Biden administration boost tariffs on Chinese goods from electric vehicles to steel and aluminum. Unfortunately, I’m worried about Newton’s law that for every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction. The Chinese government will probably counteract against these measures by targeting the imports that they receive from us and US businesses. Two that come to mind are Apple’s iPhones and Tesla’s cars. That would hurt these companies and I believe that’s what the Chinese want to do in response. The Chinese economy is suffering and they are producing far more than they can absorb domestically. As an example, they are now producing seven times the number of electrical vehicles they did in 2019 and consumers don’t have the money to buy them. They have also been a big producer of solar cells and they too are up 500% between 2018 and 2023. China has seen their global exports increase by 14%, but exports to the G7 countries now only count for 29% of those exports. This is far below the 48% it was in the year 2000. My guess would be that they are selling more to other third world countries. This means the prices will not be as high as they could get selling to the G7 countries. One area of concern with these tariffs is higher prices in the US and as we are fighting inflation these tariffs will increase the price of products not just from China, but here in the US we may produce some of those products at a higher cost, which makes reducing inflation more difficult.

2 Monthly Mortgage Payments

Making a payment every two weeks only makes a difference because at the end of the year you will have made 26 half payments (13 full payments) instead of the normal 12. This basically means you are paying extra toward the principal which will reduce the loan faster. If you were to actually pay twice a month for a total of 24 payments over the year, you will see no difference than if you had made 12 full payments. This is because with mortgage loans, the interest is based on the balance of the loan at the end of each month, so whether you pay 1 full payment or 2 half payments, the balance at the end of the month is still the same meaning the monthly interest is the same. This is different than other loans like credit cards or HELOCs where interest is calculated based on the average daily balance. With these loans making multiple smaller payments will reduce the amount of interest due and will pay it down faster. With a normal mortgage, the best way to make payments is once per month two weeks after the payment is due. For example, your May payment is due June 1st but you will not have any extra interest or penalties if you pay by June 15th. If you make your payment sooner, those funds are essentially set aside by the lender and not applied to your loan until June 15th, so there is no benefit by making your normal payment early. If you want to make extra principal payments in addition to your normal payment, it is best to make that extra payment at the end of the month. However, this should only be done if you have a high interest rate.

 

Stocks Discussed: Home Depot (HD), Zoetis (ZTS) and Altria (MO)